COS - Sorry to confuse you Keith.
Short term trends verses long term: There are patterns within patterns. On the public projections page, you are seeing a very long bear set (Higher-Set) which covers years and then a shorter term bull-set (that we are currently crossing the First X-over of), then there are shorter (Lower-Set) term patterns again. (not shown as INPATHIQUE does not present itself as a short term trading tool even though I try to use it as such).
These short term patterns are the ones that start to get a bit iffy because of the smaller number of data points that they are composed of. The Dec. 15 short INPATHIQUE referred to was probably an X-over on one of those very short term patterns. I use those to help (lack of accuracy) determine where a stock's price is going in the near future within the longer pattern. Those same shorter term patterns did not give me sufficient confidence in their forecasting ability to take a long position and ride it up to $7+ Too much room for error and I did not have the confidence in them (that time), to go long. I can't see that I shorted the stock where INPATHIQUE called it. The only trade receipts I see are a purchase at $4.01 on Dec 10 followed by as sell on Dec 14 for $4.50. If I had held for one more day I would have sold for $5+ I repeat, those short term patterns are just not accurate enough (for me).
Now here we are at a point where we know the price has to drop. I have tried to use the Lower-Set (short term) patterns once again to help me predict how low and how fast. Once again, not perfect since I bought sooner than necessary. No real harm this time though.
Using those shorter term patterns, I am expecting the price to drop more today (a lot) or all week (a lessor amount). Once again, the predictability of these short patterns is not great, but I will be keeping them updated and try to maximize my gain.
But here, let me give you one to hang me on. Using those short patterns with all those ifs, I make two predictions. One that COS will be rising on February 5 and two that it will rise through a price of $6.65 during the day.
I remind you again though, that INPATHIQUE is not great at predicting short term patterns because of the lack of data points in those short term patterns. Prediction two in particular will probable get adjusted if the additional data points between now and then indicate an error.
Having the charts in front of me, I can do that and react quickly.
Why does the number of data points matter and why doesn't the pattern hold in intraday high-low charts? INPATHIQUE is detecting the influence of the trading computers. They only absolutely show their hand when the price tries to go too high or too low. That does not happen often. Other times they cause the price to tend along INPATHIQUE Ghost and Trans-set lines amongst others. Given enough data points you can see the influence and project it into the future with accuracy and confidence. On Intraday, you may never see it. Least wise I haven't although I have made great trades when the price reaches one of INPATHIQUE boundaries during the day. Those you can nail dead on. But alas, they do not happen very often.
And why not quit your day job Keith. I have.
From your challenging questions I am starting to get the impression you have a lot more confidence in INPATHIQUE as a day trading tool than I do.
Keep making those dollars.
Greg |
