Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 256.89

-1.2%

Dec 31 3:59 PM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (27872)	1/25/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) of 70976

<<Your earlier post seemed to imply that the rate of recovery was important, and likely to be comparable to 1997.>> I view the rapid rate of bookings increase so far as indicating that a recovery has begun, and that a 1997-style rapid recovery is possible, but not guaranteed. <<The rapid recovery of bookings from 96-97 is part of the reason why the 1998 downturn was so severe, and is part of the reason why excess capacity is still overhanging the industry.>> Agreed. Each boom implies the next bust, and vice versa. <<My worry is that present equipment stock prices reflect the nirvana scenario, not the reality.>> I'm just hoping that bookings will get back up around the level of the last peak within the next year or so, and that when that happens, stock prices will be at least as high as they were a couple of weeks ago. What happens in between is of less interest, because I will not be able to get long-term capital gains treatment before then anyway.

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