Conference call was not too exciting. I waited to sell the remainder of my shares (1/3 of those bought below 3) until after the call. There is nothing to warrant a significant upside move from these levels over the next 6 months or so. Maybe after that, I'll buy back in. For now, IMO, any money here is dead.
What was especially troubling was Randy's statement that they now believe that EBITDA is a better indicator of performance than Earnings. I don't have an MBA, but that strikes me as nonsense. I think cable companies are analyzed that way, but not seed companies like PHB, MTC, etc. To someone unsophisticated like me, it sounds like a way to sugar coat paying interest out the wazoo.
What can move the stock over the long term is progression from commercial to more value-added seeds. This is not imminent. What really will hurt this stock over the long term, IMO, is that there is now such a cloud over it, that it will take not just one quarter of profitability (say Q1 year 2000), but several quarters until JT's business model (vision) can be turned into nice stock price appreciation. Put another way, while MTC, PHB, etc. will get every benefit of the doubt from Wall Street over the next few years, ABTX will not.
Yes, there is a possibility of some "buy in," but I'll leave that possibility for those with a better pipeline to ML and DB to play that. I'm not that sophisticated.
Good luck.
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