Man, a month vacation and you still get to buy THQI at $24 1/4. What a lucky guy.
I've been tossing around a few N64 numbers this morning. And I think I'm being conservative with all my figures. Anyway, here's what I came up with.
1998 N64 sales
NWO 750,000
Quest 450,000
Revenge 1,500,000
1999 likely N64 sales
Revenge/Nitro 750,000
Nomenquest 400,000
Rugrats 1,000,000
Penny Racers 250,000
Danger Girl 300,000
Road Rash 350,000
Nuclear Strike 350,000
Looks like good steady growth to me. Of course one could quibble with my figures, but one can also argue that my 1999 numbers are low. For instance, Nomenquest could sell 600,000 if it is a better game than Quest, due to the bigger installed base and new Zelda-RPGers. Danger Girl could be a hit, Rugrats could do a million in the spring/summer and another 500,000 at Christmas. The EA ports are already proven hits.
On the PSX side, THQ should beat Nitro and Rugrats with Thunder, Rugrats re-orders, and Rugrats II by a nice margin. There were no other PSX hits in 1998, but Shao Lin has a good shot to be a hit in 1999. Bass Masters also has a history of great sales on the console side.
I have to look more closely at the PC offerings, but again, THQ had no big hits in 1998. THQ will make more on the PC side in 1999 than 1998.
Of course in this business, it is tough to look out to 2000 at this point but I have to think that Farrell will really be bidding for some big licenses with the huge WCW profits. We'll be pleasantly surprised and can count on some nice pickups by E3 at the latest.
Marc |
