To the Group: "Ampex.Com" to $17!
Did somebody call my name?
Haven't had a chance to evaluate Monday's (that is, Sunday's!) TVW announcement in depth. Behind in catching up with posts, but must weigh in on this stunning development. As long-suffering AXC investors, balance sheet jockeys and all-too-civilized gadflies, you guys can't yet appreciate what you are observing. May I wake you up?
TVontheWeb is
the most important
announcement
from AXC
*IN 40 YEARS*!
Been watching TVW for a couple of months, knowing it was up for grabs, and wondering what shrewd genius was gonna crank it up. Would *never* have expected our very own AXC to be 'The Man with a Plan'.
What we now have here is...Ampex.Com!:
1) Forget the rest of AXC's business (along with its fundamentals) for the time being. All of the action is Net! (The good news is that there *is* a real business underneath the 'cyberjive'. Wall Street will honor this. Hey, it's right out of Gerstner's "services-orientation" playbook at IBM!)
2) From out of nowhere, AXC is suddenly a junior broadcast.com (BCST)--the undisputed Net streaming leader whom, you'll recall, we discussed here at some length a little more than a month ago. (I have said elsewhere that BCST now represents one of the 5 most influential Web sites in the world (the others: AMZN, AOL, MSFT and YHOO).
Here's a link to some of my commentary on BCST around the Net (additional links contained within):
boards.fool.com
3) With the stroke of a pen, AXC has taken TVW (and apparently, its production house parent) *public*. Far more important than the nominal 20 percent investment are the options to control a majority of TVW. This puts AXC in a position to direct the destiny of TVW and profit handsomely from almost certain success.
4) BCST, InterVu (ITVU, minority investment by GE/NBC), and AXC are now the ones to watch. (A couple of others are bit players, and a new entrant, OnBroadband.com, was just announced.) This is rarefied air. The global market opportunity is so vast that one cannot really regard these firms as competitors.
5) 1999 will be a year of massive consolidation on the Net as the spotlight turns to broadband. AOL/NSCP and T/ATHM/XCIT have set the agenda. Ready or not, AXC is now playing ball in the majors. AXC/TVW must establish a Web merchandising power base and do so quickly. For example, BCST is aligned with YHOO and Softbank (as well as INTC, MOT and others), and ITVU with GE/NBC (including CNET/Snap!). In this game, the score is kept (in the short term) by counting only one relevant metric: *eyeballs*!
6) TVW must build its own national brand franchise; marketing, alas, is not an Ampex skillset. What sort of inertia are we talking about? Here's a leading indicator: Monday's announcement from BCST that shows where its rollout is headed:
biz.yahoo.com
7) AXC's TVW initiative could quickly lead in many different directions: an IPO of its Net properties, a major investment by a leading media firm, portal or telephone company (e.g., TWX, CBS, NWS, LCOS (CMGI), WCOM, BEL, etc.), or even to a takeover of AXC itself. Sources of additional capital and potential strategic relationships are doubtless already on AXC's radar screen.
History has been made today. We salute Ed Bramson and Co. for extraordinary vision and courage and wish them God speed. Once again, Ampex is a "player." Poniatoff would be proud.
Make no mistake about it: AXC is now a "Focus List" stock and a "Strong Buy." If AXC can execute at warp speed, we're looking at $17 within a couple of months and $40 later this year. If you believe in the Net, cancel your subscription to Barron's, turn off CNBC, buy your wife flowers and double up your position. Do it.
BAM
P. S. When first researching TVontheWeb late last fall, I believe I came across a reference (buried in an article) to another major outside investor in TVW. As I can't now recall the identity or source, would someone try to dig it up? We need to know who's on our team. |
