<<Boy, we've been a quiet lot over the past few days -- people holding their breath?>>
I can hear an echo in here - feels like I'm talking to myself...(wouldn't be the first time)...
BTW -- the Atlanta Journal piece on Yahoo was picked up on Bloomberg this morning.
RK
Also -- TLindt, if you're out there -- I was definitely in the mood to debate the analyst vs. consultant "controversy," but I was way too tired last night when I checked into the thread...
The long and short of it is this -- with a few (very few) notable exceptions, why would ANYONE even remotely pay attention to these "soothsayers"? The average analyst covers what -- 10 or 15 companies in diverse industries??? That's 10 annual reports, 10-Q's, 10-K's, proxies and the like to page through. 10 quarterly earnings reports, conference calls and spreadsheet models that need to be updated in the shortest possible time. 10 sets "research notes" that have to be published by tomorrow...
How much time are they gonna allocate to MSFT, Intel or even Amazon vs. "unproven" Checkfree?
Once reaching a positive conclusion, how many salespeople at the analyst's firm can sell CF as an investment to mutual funds, most of which are prohibited from investing in companies that do not yet have "proved track records?" What is easier to explain to a potential customer -- Sun's JINI technology ("Well, Mr. Jones, it's like this: Your toaster will be able to talk to your VCR"), or why Checkfree has a better processing model ("now, explain to me that 'EBPP' thing again?") than the 800-pound Transpoint gorilla?
The best CF analysts are the ones posting on this thread and doing their own homework. To reiterate Pete's own words, the caliber of questions at the CF retreat in Florida was about a billion times more relevant, timely and thought-provoking than 90% of the "professional" anal-ysts out there. NO ONE really knows how big the EBPP market can become, or when it will get there. All you can do is invest in the TREND...(how many anal-ysts do you believe had accurate projections, back in 1980, as to how big the cable industry would become? How many would have gone on the record with his or her belief that 60% or 80% of US homes would be wired within 20 years?) Don't even get me started with ATM analogies.
To paraphrase Mr. Buffet, the only trick to making money in the stock market is to forget that it exists. Buy COMPANIES and have patience, LOTS of patience... Contrary to popular belief, the market is incredibly INEFFICIENT, and can harbor HUGE swings above and below "fair value," which can take many years to attain...
'nuff said... |
