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Technology Stocks : C-Cube
CUBE 37.54+1.5%Nov 7 3:59 PM EST
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To: John Rieman who wrote (38588)1/26/1999 1:13:00 PM
From: Robert G. Harrell  Read Replies (1) of 50808
 
John,
In his book, The Roaring 2000's, Harry Dent presents the S-curve concept in which he says, "it typically takes the same amount of time for a product to reach 10 percent acceptance as it does to reach 90% acceptance." He uses the automobile as an example. It took 14 years for cars to penetrate 10% of the US market (1900, 0.1% to 1914, 10%)and 14 more years to reach 90% (1914, 10%, to 1921, 50%, to 1928, 90%). Then on to 99% in 1935 and 99.9% in 1942. I'm wondering how close any of the basic technologies supported by C-Cube are to 10% market penetration.

I went ahead and took my annual CUBE tax loss early this year so I'm not in the stock at the moment but I intend to get back in at an appropriate time and price. (Is this the stock market equivalent of abused wife syndrome?) It seems like the threshold of 10% market penetration would be the best time to get in. You don't waste years and potential returns tying up money in an under-performing company that keeps missing premature expectations but get in on the initial sales boom before prices become totally commoditized.

The article you just posted seems very relevant to this idea but I don't know what market penetration DVD may be doubling or tripling from.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Bob
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