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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.19

-0.8%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: HiSpeed who wrote (4717)	1/26/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) of 99985

INDEX UPDATE =================================== Todays movement was similar to yesterdays in that the market internals did not really support the rally. Some may say give it time; however I feel the internals must improve immediately. Well my CLASS 1 BUY signal did work, although it moved immediately yesterday and has definitely already fulfilled its minimum requirement. My short-term technicals are now in the mid-range/upper mid-range and I calculate that if the market continues straight up it will reach the short-term extremes in 2-3 days and become a CLASS SELL. Such timing is also fitting in nicely with the INTERSECTION of the WEDGE(lower trendline) and the PITCHFORK(upper trendline), which should occur near FRIDAY around 9500. Weak market internals, the WEDGE, the PITCHFORK, are ominous signs, but that is not to say we are going to get the BK but just to say that the next pullback should be sizeable. On a subjective view, my broker indicated that thru the years of trading he has noticed that Jan is when the 401K money inflows and in MAR-APRIL the IRA inflows increase. He also noted that the inflows of 401K ends by the end of JAN and the strong inflow of funds do not start again until MAR/APR for the IRA. So FEB is normally not as big for inflow of funds as JAN. I am just repeating what my broker feels but I have no way of substantiating that, since I have only been trading a few years. If anyone wants to comment please do. If such is true, subjectively, it would fit nicely with the senerio of a pullback in FEB as implied by the WEDGE/PITCHFORK. Seeya

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