As you know, I am a short. I am not currently short, so my opinions are not financially (i.e. emotionally) biased. I want to be short, but I would get kicked out of Shorters Anonymous. Noting that I am the founding member, that would be quite embarrassing.
Now, Alwayslate, Smart Investor and other shorts realize the beauty of the internet (obviously, due to the fact that we chat with you here too often), only we are smart enough however to take it to the next level. We realize that the internet is so awesome and efficient, that nobody (not Yahoo, not Amazon, not anyone) will be able to sustain a competitive advantage to generate profits to justify anything close to these valuations. This point is a fact. The only way to make profits is with proprietary content (like the networks do with Seinfeld, Superbowl, etc,) Only problem is that this costs big bucks to produce. Amazon will need to have superior distribution to win. Ooops, Fed ex is the distribution agent. Take a look as Brightpoint. They distribute wireless phones. OK business. Low margins. Value added. But no big deal. Amazon distributes books, CDs, videos. Low margins. Not much value added (strictly a middleman). Low (dare I say negative) margins.
Message to all long folks from the Guru - Don't confuse a roaring bull market with brains. If you are a trader (i.e. truly unemotional about the companies any only concerned with the ticker), that is fine. But don't make foolish statements like you just did to Smartman.
Guru. |
