There appears to be a lot of what Chairman Greenspan once coined "irrational exuberance" on this high fiveing and Crown Royal'd thread.
As far as the PC sector goes, all of the huge money in the last 2 years has been made in Dell. I have had the privilege of working closely with people on that thread that have made multi-million dollar scores on Dell in the past 2 1/2 years.
Compaq has a proud history of dicking around with their numbers, and they have a few shareholder lawsuits against them to show for it. While the DEC contribution will propel CPQ to become more IBM-like long term, they are losing the war to Dell on the PC front short term.
The timing of the Altavista spin-off a day before earnings strikes me as very odd, almost Machavelian. It is my belief that if Compaq does make its numbers, it would be due to their familiar channel stuffing, and they would temper the great news tomorrow with an "early warning" for the next quarter.
Or, they do the right thing and come in below estimates, perhaps .03 to .05 cents below .37 consensus.
Either way, this baby tanks tomorrow and I've got 50 contracts of the Feb 40 puts I acquired just before the close yesterday to show for it.
I may be opinionated, but I always put my money where my mouth is.
Gene Piccoli
ps. If you want to make serious money, or just gain a better knowledge of the industry, I highly recommend the Dell thread as a
must read. Like any thread, there's a lot of noise to sift through, but the great minds there make it all worth it. Two years ago, I got some of my best clients out of Compaq and into Dell, and in Dell they remain today. Just my 2 cents.... |
