ALL:
So it looks like this NTT meeting Jan 28, which is tomorrow, is shaping up to be a big deal. Despite our Fearless Tea Leaf and Invisible Ink on the Wall Reading Leaders interpretation, Wall St. continues to play it safe. I would be remiss in my duty as “doubting Thomas/Dave” were I not skeptical. Why would Gregg be the only one hip to what's going on? I find it a bit hard to believe given the way Q is trading that we're gonna be reading about WCDMA capitulation when we get up in the morning. These things usually leak and the “winning” companies' stock starts rising mysteriously. I guess it's probably fair to say that WCDMA proponents are also expecting the coup de grace, only they think it's CDMA2000 /QCOM which will lose it's head. The DocCoMo press release is certainly innocuous enough, lots of wiggle room. They've made it abundantly clear that these are test and not commercial systems. Perhaps they're trying to force their hand at ITU and have not given up on WCDMA 3.8-4.0x chiprate afterall? Wasn't the ARIB proposal the same as ERICY WCDMA?
All three specifications conform to a standard specification submitted as a proposal to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) by the Association of Radio Industries and Businesses (ARIB), a domestic body that is striving to standardize wireless communications.
The ITU's standardization work for IMT-2000 technology is approaching its final stage. However, the ITU has not yet approved W-CDMA proposed by NTT DoCoMo as the standard.
Therefore, the timing for NTT DoCoMo to start its procurement is a delicate matter. The company seeks to launch the service in the spring of 2001. To meet this schedule, the procurement procedures must start ahead of the ITU's adoption of the standard, because of the time required to build the system.
Using this procurement mechanism, a limited quantity of test systems are to be purchased. As for systems for commercial use, quantities and delivery dates for their implementation are yet to be decided.
On the other hand of course these guys need badly to get some test systems up and running. As Engineer has pointed out they are at a very significant disadvantage vis a vis CDMA2000 advocates who have IS95/CDMAone as a real live commercially loaded testbed. GSM manufacturers really do have to prove that they know how to build CDMA systems and probably have a lot to learn. It's no wonder that they're so afraid of QCOM/Lu et al. The new chipset and more powerful phones in conjunction with IS95B and WK must be a real wakeup call. Time is very definitely on our side. I ‘d imagine that one learns a lot from these test systems even if important parameters ie chiprate change. It's certainly going to be interesting to see who are awarded these contracts. In order that they at least appear open minded some CDMA2000 players ie LU ,NT or Mot will get a chance at infrastructure, and perhaps even our Q will have a shot at handsets. We'll see.
In short, I'm really in no position to and don't disagree in any fundamental way with Greggs analysis. Perry LaForge and CDG also seem to think we're in the endgame. Their call for a 3G summit to resolve matters “in the next few weeks” certainly sounds optimistic. FWIW though I just don't think we're going to get the final answer tomorrow. What we're going to be left with will again be ambiguous, proponents of both sides will once again hail it a victory, more spin etc….DMG
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