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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1200)1/27/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner  Read Replies (1) of 3536
 
Remeber several months back when the Yen was ine the 130 range and
the PBOC would come out with bizarre statements such as 'we can not
hold the RMB much longer with the Yen at this rate... Japan must do
something about it.. etc."
Clinton then visited China and all Asian currencies strengthened
as the great global margin call of '98 came to pass.
My question is this - with Brazil's devaluation (or continuing devaluation - it hasn't been halted yet) leaving smoke that has yet to clear, is China's threshhold for pain now maybe Yen 120? Now that the dollar has bounced off its low it seems that if a few institutions establish decent short yen positions, we may very well see 120 by next week....
With the U.S. stock market continuing higher, Japanese citizens may
be quick to send T. Rowe Price a check, as is now allowed in Japan.
This may be exacerbating the Yen's recent weakness, or it may just be
a technical correction.
It is imperitive for the Chinese to strengthen their future prospects
by devaluing - there are warehouses full of garments and shoes that
have been waiting for months to be exported, and the average selling
prices are even lower now, due to cutthroat competition among neighboring nations and China for U.S. garment industry business.
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