Kline's estimates of lithium polymer production for end of '99 (cross post from Yahoo):
Prefatory comments: This article only accounts for companies having specifically announced production quantities, so it is not surprising that Valence is not accounted for. However, based on Lev's statements, we anticipate being well up on this list this year.
What is significant to me is the explicit comment by the author that even though the projected 16 million cells a year from Sony, MBI, and T&B "... represents less than 5% of the anticipated demand for lithium ion batteries in 1999, it is still an important first step in proving the commercial viability of this technology. ... Kline projects that solid or gel-type electrolyte lithium ion polymer batteries will account for 20% to 25% of all lithium ion batteries sold within five years, and may approach $3 billion to $4 billion in ten years."
The author also states that he anticipates other companies, including 'small startups,' to be in production this year. Not quite the same dismissal that Barrons provided.
Sounds like one heckuva big market. I have little doubt that even our little startup (!) 'can sell all the batteries they can make,' (to paraphrase Lev). Enjoy!
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SONY AND MATSUSHITA MAKE MAJOR COMMITMENTS
Story Filed: Wednesday, January 27, 1999 06:14 PM EST
to the Lithium Ion Polymer Battery Industry
LITTLE FALLS, N.J., Jan. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- The recent announcements of the commencement of commercial production of lithium ion polymer batteries by Sony, Matsushita Battery Industrial Co., Ltd. (MBI),
and Thomas & Betts (T&B) are significant milestones in the growth of this technology, according to Kline & Company, Inc., a New Jersey-based business consulting firm. Recent announcements indicate that by year's end, there will be a viable annual production capacity of 16 million lithium ion polymer cells. This is consistent with
recent estimates made by Kline in their recent market study titled "GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES, 1997-2007."
All three firms are targeting their products for the cellular communications market. Stated and estimated capacities for each company are listed below:
Company Annual capacity
(millions of cells)
Sony 12.0
MBI 3.6
T&B 0.2
Total 15.8
Kline forecasts that lithium ion polymer batteries will become the premier battery technology in portable electronics. Because of its design flexibility, the major end-use applications for this technology will be in cellular communications and mobile computers.
"These are very important developments. We view them as only the first in a long line of commercial lithium ion polymer announcements," says Michael Corbett, project manager at Kline. "Sony is the leading global supplier of lithium ion cells with approximately 30% market share. It clearly views this technology as a future growth area."
"MBI's announcement is also significant because MBI is the world's largest battery producer and one of the leading producers of small secondary batteries." (MBI produces about 5 million lithium ion cells a month.) "MBI views the 21st century as the century of lithium ion technology. It is investing a great deal to upgrade its technology
and build the necessary manufacturing capacity to obtain a position of leadership," notes Corbett. "Lithium ion polymer provides MBI with a way to grow its business without starting a price war, as it will initially be targeting new products in higher-end applications."
Kline estimates that, altogether, Sony, MBI, and T&B can produce approximately 16 million cells a year. "Even though this represents less than 5% of the anticipated demand for lithium ion batteries in 1999, it is still an important first step in proving the commercial viability of this technology," Corbett says. Kline projects that solid
or gel-type electrolyte lithium ion polymer batteries will account for 20% to 25% of all lithium ion batteries sold within five years, and may approach $3 billion to $4 billion in ten years. "This means that this technology will be more than just a niche application. It will move into the mainstream for portable electronics as it better meets
evolving consumer value-added propositions," notes Corbett.
"The importance of the T&B announcement is that it highlights that smaller companies can successfully commercialize this technology as well," according to Corbett. Kline estimates that approximately 30 companies around the world are working on commercializing some form of lithium ion polymer or related technology. Kline also anticipates that such larger lithium ion cell producers as Sanyo or Toshiba, as well as smaller startup companies, may also enter the lithium ion polymer market this year.
Kline's study titled "GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES,
1997-2007" assesses and analyzes the current and projected status of market need and technology for lithium ion polymer in the portable electronics and the high-performance secondary battery value chain. The study also provides long-term forecasts for consumption of lithium ion batteries by end-use application and geographic region.
Established in 1959, Kline & Company, Inc. is an international business and management consulting firm. The company is considered to be a leading consultancy on advanced battery technologies and the battery industry. For information on how to subscribe to this study, contact Michael Corbett at Kline & Company, Inc., 150 Clove Road, Little Falls, NJ 07424, 973-435-3457, or via e-mail at Mike--Corbett@klinegroup.com.
SOURCE Kline & Company, Inc. |
