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Gold/Mining/Energy : Yogen Fruz IT'S ALIVE, IT'S ALIVE

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To: telecomguy who wrote (1053)1/27/1999 8:15:00 PM
From: Stocker  Read Replies (2) of 2453
 
About the First Marathon report....

While FM has had some problems in the past, I have dealt with them a lot. I read the whole FM report which came out 2 days prior to earnings. FM has had a former underwriting relationship with YF and has covered YF for a few years at least. Their retail analyst is in my opinion quite good and he has made a number of good calls in the past. Incidentally, he had a strong buy on YF well in advance of it's run up to the $12-14 level. He has also been very right on stocks like Jean Coutu etc. In the report he downgraded YF to buy and talked about not only the management shift, but also the potential EPIE acquisition (remember, this was before earnings and the EPIE news was not public yet). Obviously he had been speaking to management before drafting the report.

In my opinion, FM never did say there was management infighting - simply that Smith had assumed large role in management of the company. To me this only makes sense since Integrated now makes up such a large portion of YF's revenues. Incidentally, FM again downgraded YF to hold in the last week or two saying that they see more risk in YF's strategy. No manager likes to see his company downgraded so maybe this has generated enough concern among YF management that they felt they needed to speak out. Maybe they're just upset with FM. Nonetheless, maybe the bad press and pathetic stock price will finally show YF management that they need to work to keep the street and retail investors happy, much more so than they've done recently.

As far as selling YF to a bigger player, Smith would be the guy YF would want to tap if they're interested in that option. To me, that's the best alternative YF has right now. As for possible suitors, companies like Nestle were mentioned in FM's report with a deal possible in the next few years.
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