Antex Biologics (ANTX) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Antex Biologics (ANTX)

ANTX 1.140

0.0%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: John R Resseger who wrote (1132)	1/28/1999 12:34:00 AM
From: Amigo Mike	Read Replies (2) of 1476

John, This what you are looking for ???? Partially updated .... I believe this is the first time I have published this (biotech valuation model)..... pardon me if it does not transfer well. I'd be more than happy to discuss if anyone is interested. I have taken the very lowest valuations for this model. One should keep in mind that Antex has worldwide partners that will be able to market completed vaccines worldwide upon approval .... but you can use this to see how far undervalued and undiscovered Antex is and draw your own conclusions. 1. Campylobacter vaccine - 400+ million cases worldwide X $5 = $2 Billion times market penetration of 3% = $60 Million times 0.4 (phase II factor) = $24 million contribution to market cap. 2. Helicobacter vaccine - cases tough to define, no current preventative. The potential here is vaccination of children as it is estimated that 100% of children carry this pathogen. 50% of Adults carry it. This vaccine is also a cancer preventative. Too early to determine market potential - $5 million contribution to market cap. 3. H Influenzae vaccine - 25 million cases yearly in US alone - potential includes vaccination of every newborn. Too early to determine market potential - $5 million contribution to market cap. 4. Shigella vaccine - preclinical - $5 million contribution to market cap. 5. Moraxella vaccine - preclinical - $5 million contribution to market cap. 6. Chlamydia vaccine - preclinical - $5 million contribution to market cap. 7 & 8. Pneumococcus and Neiserria - discovery - no contribution. Antex currently has 21 US patents on its technology times 500K per patent = $11.5 Million contribution to market cap. (over 90 worldwide) Antex has more patents pending. Some have received notice of allowance at present. TOTAL = vaccines and patent contribution is $60.5 Million PLUS CURRENT ASSETS MINUS LONG TERM DEBT = ($4.9mm-0mm) = $4.9mm TOTAL = $65.4 million MANAGEMENT FACTOR ACCUMULATED DEFICIT = $12.3mm REVENUES LAST FIVE YEARS = $5mm purposely low so as not to overvalue MARKET CAP MANGAGEMENT FACTOR = (5/12.3) = 0.406504 MULTIPLY $65.4mm times 0.406 = 26.58537 TOTAL MARKET VALUATION (management factor plus valuation) = 91.98537 Million Current shares outstanding - 25.9 million (35 million diluted) FAIR VALUE = $3.551559 ($2.628153) Diluted Disclaimer: The valuations are approximate. No one should invest in Antex based on this model. Do your own research and draw your own conclusions. Amigo Mike

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next