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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Scumbria who wrote (47610)1/28/1999 3:01:00 AM
From: TBF  Read Replies (3) of 1571040
 
All AMD blind optimists

Here is the summary info from the CS/First Boston research update released shortly after 4th qtr earnings release. It's a pretty grim outlook for '99 and 2000. CS/First Boston missed calling AMD's earnings by only one penny (.16 vs .15) so its analyst deserves some respect.

Is there any analytical basis (as opposed to blind hope) to think that AMD can do much better that $0.20/sh in '99? CS First Boston also predicts a glut of low end CPU's during 1st and 2nd qtr as a result of Intel Celeron and NSM ??? ramping up.

Excerpts from CS/First Boston update on AMD follows:

4Q98 downside driven by lower ASPs; losses in non-CPU
businesses

Outlook grim as we enter a seasonally slower environment
ASP recovery an uphill battle until K7 enters the scene in
2H99

Non-CPU businesses not likely to resume growth until 2Q99
Reducing 1999 EPS to $0.20 from $0.65; initiating 2000 EPS of
$0.40

Maintain HOLD rating

Price Target Mkt.Value 52-Week
1/13/991 (12mo.) Div. Yield (MM) Price Range
USD $27.75 NA $0 None $4,159.7 $12.75-33
Annual Prev. Abs. Rel. EV/ EBITDA/
EPS EPS P/E P/E EBITDA Share
12/2000E $0.40 NA 21.3X
12/99A 0.20 0.65 42.7x
12/98A (0.72) NA
March June Sept. Dec. FY End
2000E $0.02 $0.04 $0.12 $0.21 Dec.
1999E 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.10
1998A (0.39)A (0.45)A 0.01A 0.10A

I was also a blind optimist with a long AMD position that I am now reassessing. Fortunately I also had a bigger position in MSFT which has tripled while AMD has done nothing over the last several years.
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