Fred, I can not agree that the Barron's article on LiPoly batteries is excellent. I follow the LiPoly arena somewhat; and, as I have stated here before, I think these batteries will be important, perhaps dominant, in electronics applications. This should not effect ENER much as NiMH is much better for other applications (at least as far as I can tell). And, ENER has so many other things it is pursuing.
The following is the major part of a another recent article on LiPoly.
Title: SONY AND MATSUSHITA MAKE MAJOR COMMITMENTS
Summary:
The recent announcements of the commencement of commercial production of lithium ion polymer batteries by Sony, Matsushita Battery Industrial Co., Ltd. (MBI), and Thomas & Betts (T&B) are significant milestones in the growth of this technology, according to Kline & Company, Inc., a New Jersey-based business consulting firm. Recent announcements indicate that by year's end, there will be a viable annual production capacity of 16 million lithium ion polymer cells. This is consistent with recent estimates made by Kline in their recent market study titled "GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES, 1997-2007."
SONY AND MATSUSHITA MAKE MAJOR COMMITMENTS
Story Filed: Wednesday, January 27, 1999 06:14 PM EST
LITTLE FALLS, N.J., Jan. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- The recent announcements of the commencement of commercial production of lithium ion polymer batteries by Sony, Matsushita Battery Industrial Co., Ltd. (MBI), and Thomas & Betts (T&B) are significant milestones in the growth of this technology, according to Kline & Company, Inc., a New Jersey-based business consulting firm. Recent announcements indicate that by year's end, there will be a viable annual production capacity of 16 million lithium ion polymer cells. This is consistent with recent estimates made by Kline in their recent market study titled "GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES, 1997-2007."
All three firms are targeting their products for the cellular communications market. Stated and estimated capacities for each company are listed
below:
Company Annual capacity
(millions of cells)
Sony 12.0
MBI 3.6
T&B 0.2
Total 15.8
Kline forecasts that lithium ion polymer batteries will become the premier battery technology in portable electronics. Because of its design flexibility, the major end-use applications for this technology will be in cellular communications and mobile computers. "These are very important developments. We view them as only the first in a long line of commercial lithium ion polymer announcements," says Michael Corbett, project manager at Kline. "Sony is the leading global supplier of lithium ion cells with approximately 30% market share. It clearly views this technology as a future growth area."
"MBI's announcement is also significant because MBI is the world's largest battery producer and one of the leading producers of small secondary batteries." (MBI produces about 5 million lithium ion cells a month.) "MBI views the 21st century as the century of lithium ion technology. It is investing a great deal to upgrade its technology and build the necessary manufacturing capacity to obtain a position of leadership," notes Corbett. "Lithium ion polymer provides MBI with a way to grow its business without starting a price war, as it will initially be targeting new products in higher-end applications."
Kline estimates that, altogether, Sony, MBI, and T&B can produce approximately 16 million cells a year. "Even though this represents less than 5% of the anticipated demand for lithium ion batteries in 1999, it is still an important first step in proving the commercial viability of this technology," Corbett says. Kline projects that solid or gel-type electrolyte lithium ion polymer batteries will account for 20% to 25% of all lithium ion batteries sold within five years, and may approach $3 billion to $4 billion in ten years. "This means that this technology will be more than just a
niche application. It will move into the mainstream for portable electronics as it better meets evolving consumer value-added propositions," notes Corbett.
"The importance of the T&B announcement is that it highlights that smaller companies can successfully commercialize this technology as well," according to Corbett. Kline estimates that approximately 30 companies around the world are working on commercializing some form of lithium ion polymer or related technology. Kline also anticipates that such larger lithium ion cell producers as Sanyo or Toshiba, as well as smaller startup companies, may also enter the lithium ion polymer market this year.
Kline's study titled "GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES IN ADVANCED BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES, 1997-2007" assesses and analyzes the current and projected status of market need and technology for lithium ion polymer in the portable electronics and the high-performance secondary battery value chain. The study also provides long-term forecasts for consumption of lithium ion batteries by end-use application and geographic region.
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