XMCM worth at least $75 by comparison.
I'm amazed at the lack of postings here. Geo gets taken out by Yahoo at $3.56 billion
for unique reach of roughly 19 million users. That's $187 per unique user.
At this point, Yahoo (through Geocities) and Lycos (through Tripod and Angelfire) now
have their community plays in place. Infoseek, Excite, MSN, etc. will all need to move
aggressively now to keep up.
With 10.7 million users, Xoom is currently the largest remaining community company
and largest remaining non-portal company on the web.
It should get taken out at some point, but at what price?
Applying Geo's value per user of $187 to Xoom's user base would result in an implied
value of $2 billion, or $153 per share, a 207% premium over its current price.
Taking a more conservative approach, even if one assumes Xoom gets taken out at half
the value per user of Geocities (Geo is perceived as the market leader), at $93.50 per
user, Xoom would be valued at $1 billion, or $77 per share, a 54% premium over its
current price.
Looks like a buy at these prices if one believes Xoom is the next acquisition target. |
