To All,
Technical Analysis (TA) shows decreasing upside momentum, with the stochastic indicator in a near term sale configuration. I don't look for a large point drop from the current price $1.59375, but with a projected downward move to $1.40, a large % drop (12%). Below $1.40 the price support could go to $1 13/32 & $1.25 in worse case. The problem is that with the current weakness in the market (IMO), most weak stocks will be in a sell off. Also, the fundamentals for LCAV are questionable at this time (see the Vector Vest analysis at the end of this post).
If on the other hand LCAV can get above $1.625, the next upside resistance is $1.69, $1.84, & $2.8125 respectively. I think
the main factors supporting the stock at the present time are: (1).
Strength in the leading stocks of the Eye Care sector, i.e. VISX, BEAM, & SNRS to name a few. (2). As for the LCAV the main factors are "Hype" and "Hope", just too many people are buying this stock on other people's recommendation without really good fundamentals. For a fundamental analysis on LCAV, see the following "VectoVest" LRU to see their analysis.
Harry
<http://www.vectorvest.com/>
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Vector Vest Analysis for LCA Visions (LCAV)
Stock Analysis of L C A Vision
The ticker symbol for L C A Vision is LCAV. LCAV is traded on the NASDAQ.
PRICE: LCAV closed on 01/27/1999 at $1.60 per share.
VALUE: LCAV has a Value of $0.5 per share. Value is the foundation of
the VectorVest system. It is a measure of what a stock is currently worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend payments, dividend growth rate, and financial performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an important role in the computation of Value. When interest and/or inflation rates decrease, Value goes up. When interest rates and inflation increase, Value goes
down. Sooner or later a stock's Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): LCAV has an RV of 0.41. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RV of 0.41 is very poor. RV reflects the long-term price appreciation potential of the stock compared to an alternative investment in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV ratings above 1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an RV greater than 1.00 when its Value is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety (see below) and forecasted earnings growth rate are above average. In some cases, however, a stock's RV will be above 1.00 even though its Value is well below Price. This happens when a stock has an exemplary record of financial performance and an above average earnings growth rate. In this case, the stock is currently selling at a premium, and
the investor is banking on future earnings growth to drive the stock's
price higher. This information is very useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price appreciation potential,
but it also solves the riddle of whether to buy high growth, high P/E,
or low growth, low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently
achieve above average capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): LCAV has an RS rating of 0.68. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RS of 0.68 is poor. VectorVest looks at safety from the viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is buying stock of a company) rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one who is lending money to the company). From this perspective, consistency of financial and operating performance, stock price appreciation history, and price volatility are the key factors used in the evaluation of Relative
Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio, capitalization, sales volume,
business longevity and other factors are also considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated
on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average of all stocks. A stock with an RS less than 1.00 is less predictable and riskier than the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): LCAV has an RT rating of 1.22. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RT of 1.22 is very good. RT is a fast, responsive, short-term price trend indicator. It analyzes the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price behavior over the last 13 weeks; then reflects and projects the short-term price performance of the stock. Once a stock's Price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend for the short-term. If the trend
dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00. Should the price change
dramatically, RT will notice the crucial turning point. When warranted, it will explode from a Price low and dive from a Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00, the stock's Price is in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's Price is in a downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): LCAV has a VST-Vector rating of 0.84. On a scale of
0.00 to 2.00, an VST of 0.84 is poor. VST-Vector solves the dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks with high RV values often have low RS values, or stocks withlow RV and RS values have high RT's. How can we find the stocks with the best combinations of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares)
handles this problem. It combines a set of forces into a single indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database.
Stocks with the highest VST-Vector have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones to own for above average capital application.
GRT (Growth Rate): LCAV has a GRT of -3 % per year. This is very poor.
GRT stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate in percent per year. GRT is updated each week for every stock. Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the stock's Price will likely rise. If the GRT trend is down, the stock's Price will increase more slowly, cease to increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): LCAV has a Hold recommendation. REC reflects the
cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell risky,
overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is approximately 10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal when the stock's price is approximately 10% below a recent high. High RV, RS stocks are favored toward receiving "B" REC's, and sheltered from receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: LCAV has a Stop-Price of 1.50 per share. This is 0.10 or
6.3% belowits current closing Price. VectorVest analyzes over 6,000 stocks each day for Value, Safety and Timing, and calculates a Stop-Price for each stock. These Stop-Prices are based upon 13 week
moving averages of closing prices, and are fine-tuned according to each stock's fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H" recommendation if its price is above its Stop-Price, and an "S" recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): LCAV does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses on
annual, regular, cash dividends indicated by the most recent disbursement. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., generally are not included in Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): LCAV has a DY of 0 percent. This is above the
current market average of percent. DY equals 100 x (DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): LCAV has an EY of -5.83%. This is above the current market average of %. EY equals 100 x (EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): LCAV has an EPS of $-0.09 per share. EPS
stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): LCAV has a P/E ratio of -17.17. This
ratio is computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): LCAV has a GPE of 0. This ratio suggests that This ratio suggests that LCAVis overvalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure of stock valuation which compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) to Price Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is considered
to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00, and vice-versa.
VectorVest believes that RV is a much better indicator of long-term value. The RV of 0.41 for LCAVis very poor.
DS (Dividend Safety): LCAV has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99, a DS of 0 is poor. DS is defined as the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. Stocks with DS values above 50 on a scale of 0 to 99 areabove average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): LCAV does not pay a dividend. All stocks in the
VectorVest system that pay dividends are classified as having Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk (RISK). Stocks with DS values above 50 are above average in safety. These stocks are classified as having LOW
or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS values below 50 are below average in
safety and are classified as having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): LCAV has a DG of 0 percent per year. Dividend
Growth is a subtle yet important indicator of a company's historical financial performance and the board's current outlook on the future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): LCAV has a YSG-Vector of 0. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an YSG-Vector rating of 0 is very poor.
VectorVest combines Dividend YIELD, SAFETY and GROWTH into a single parameter. YSG-Vector allows direct comparison of all dividend paying stocks. Stocks with the highest YSG-Vector values have the best
combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.
VOL(100)s: LCAV traded 109300 shares on 01/27/1999.
AVG VOL(100)s: LCAV has an Average Volume of 180914. Average Volume is
50 day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: LCAV had a Volume change of -39.6% from its 50 day moving average volume.
OPEN: LCAV opened trading at $1.56 per share on 01/27/1999.
HIGH: LCAV traded at a high of $1.66 per share on 01/27/1999.
LOW: LCAV traded at a low of $1.56 per share on 01/27/1999.
CLOSE: LCAV Closed trading at $1.60 per share on 01/27/1999.
% PRC: LCAV showed a Price change of -5.9% from the prior day's closing price.
INDUSTRY: LCAVhas been assigned to the Healthcare (Outpnt\HmCare) Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over 190 Industry Groups and 50 Business Sectors.
LCAV has well below average safety with well below average upside
potential. It reflects a stock which is likely to give well below average, inconsistent returns over the long term.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy low risk, high reward stocks. We suggest that Prudent investors buy enough high Relative Value, high Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and
RS ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As you do this, you'll find
that your risk will go down and your investment performance will improve. Not a bad combination.
Thank you for your interest in VectorVest ProGraphics.
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