Herbert,
the disk drive stocks are a little bit like dram stocks some time ago. It's a groth industry in cyles. The companies either can't deliver enough or sit on too much inventory. Accordingly their margins are fat or nonexisten (losses). They overinvest in good times, then make too much product and prices collapse (Whole asia did that in grand style on fast investment cash from outside, hence their ultimate crash). Next they shrink they workforce, take charges and so on and so forth.
Some ten Years ago we had 20 or 30 DD makers, where we now only have a few strong players left, that probably shal stay (Save WDC).
I agree with Bob Walberg, am a long briefing.com reader. They are often a little early with their predictions, I think.
I should read the reports of the part makers for the DD industry like innivex, hutchinson, komag and alike. As theis biz is a little erlyer in the production cycle (not much in todays just in time supply chain), they should be a lead indicator for the final product makers.
Look on multi year charts to see how long the usual cycle is. Then divide outside factors (asia, rusia, brazil, lewinsky and so forth) away and build Your opinion. In fact I should ddo the same.
Be so kind to tell me Your conclusion.
I hold my QNTM shares
Sincerely Lutz |
