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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 48.72+3.0%Jan 14 3:59 PM EST
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To: kas1 who wrote (9898)2/2/1997 4:23:00 PM
From: William H Huebl   of 186894
 
Hi Konrad,

You guys always pick up on whatever I forget to say... you are absolutely right about the problem with linear techniques. You have a legitimate gotcha...

Well are the rub(s)...

I plotted the chart on a semi-log scale so the upper Raff channel now becomes a multiplier line rather than a straight arithmetic one (did I say that right?):

- I could not get a RAFF channel back to 1986... the computer goes wonky when I get back more than a couple of years... I suspect the lower line goes negative or something. So I went back to the linear one and today's peak was always at the upper Raff Channel... from starting a year back and anywhere back to 1986.

- Then I went back to the semi-log plot, drew a trend line on the bottoms of the sell-offs from 1986 - 1994... and then a peak line parallel to it from the top of the market Oct 1987... and that's how it intersected with current prices.

So the peak line is a multiplier line which is proportional to the stock price and todays price can thusly related to the October peak. The only trouble with this is, the upper line has a different slope than the lower one... but all points on one line are proportional to the corresponding points on the other.

You don't have to accept this... it is just my observation. When my son comes back from an errand, I will see if I can post the chart to a response... seeing is believing. (My boy is the PC brain... not me.)

Thanks for keeping me straight. Besides, why can't we have a crash now? It's as good a time as any.

Regards,

Bill
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