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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR
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To: AJ Berger who wrote (5630)1/28/1999 2:58:00 PM
From: Tom Hua  Read Replies (3) of 27722
 
AJ, I trade in and out. Here are my opinions.

I'm giving less weight to the IPO announcement pop that most are expecting. Because of the long delay and the proximity to the 60-day promised by Paulson, everyone who wants to play the pop has already taken a position. For that reason, current prices have largely factored in the anticipated announcement. It won't be a surprise to anyone. Don't forget many will sell on the news.

NAVR will attract attention again once we're close to the actual IPO. The degree of runup at that time depends on who the underwriters are, among other things.

There's been talk about an inevitable short squeeze from the 2 MM short shares. IMO, it ain't gonna happen. Majority of the short shares will never have to be bought from the open market to cover. Those shares were shorted by the preferred stock holders who will and have converted at very low prices to pay back. I was a little surprised that no one pointed out the increase in shares outstanding when the company reported earnings on Tuesday. An increase of about 2.4 MM shares from Q2!! Because the numbers reported are time-weighted average, the actual shares converted last quarter must be a lot more than 2.5 MM.

In summary, at current prices, I am short term neutral on NAVR. As you know, I tell it the way I feel, and I have been wrong on many occasions.

Regards,

Tom
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