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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: FMK who wrote (54)2/2/1997 4:48:00 PM
From: Alex Fleming   of 27311
 
Right On! Nice analysis. I am not a tax expert but I beleive that since Valence has been making loses for a while that they would be able to defer some of their tax expense to the following financial year.There are a lot of variables but I sort of come up with 50-60$. Again wild speculation but whatever the outcome is, there is a ton of upside potential.

I am trying to not set my expectations too high at the moment- not because of the fundamentals of VLNC but because of the market in general. At some point you can throw out the fundamentals because the market has its own insane way of applying valuations to companies. Look at IOM, Zitel, Vias, Diana and to a lesser degree Ascend, Cascade etc. etc. etc. I am not trying to say that VLNC will mimic any of those examples but it has everything in place to be Wall Streets flavor of the month so to speak. The transition from negative to positive earning with the potential for 10x returns will not go unnoticed. We would have a classic example of Greenspan's "irrational exuberance". I agree with your analysis with everything you mentioned but just the basic potential of VLNC that you state so clearly, accelerates the rate at which market dynamics will take over from the fundamentals.

All I can say then really is that we are lucky to be in this stock while the numbers still make sense.

Regards and nice post. Makes it harder for me to suprress my optimism.

Alex
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