Jock, >>>unless we see a major setback in out stock market--something
that is not out of the question with the uncertainty of cyclicality rearing its ugly
head due to world-wide Y2K problems.<<<
Yes, Y2K could be a major joker, of the kind in the Batman comics (not good). But, why do you use the word cyclicality wrt Y2K? To me, the classic model is that companies (mostly just U.S. ones, unfortunately) scramble, or continue to scramble to get their hardware and software systems compliant, and then, sometime 2H99, they stop buying new systems. They then ride through 1/1/2000, holding their breath, and then things get back to normal. Not right away, but maybe 2Q00. So, to me, this is a glitch, or pause, rather than a cycle.
Having said that, I still have a feeling that the companies and countries late to get started on Y2K compliance, could cause a wave of panic buying late this year, hoping to "fix" it quickly. Good luck. Some will even wait 'til next year. Net effect is that the late folks may smooth out the down glitch expected in hardware sales late this year.
It will be interesting to watch it all play out. And, to make it more interesting, just think that it is an unprecedented phenomenon in the history of computers and all things electronic, and mankind!
Tony |
