Chuzzlewit,
I have the same problem with analyzing AOL. I have shares that I bought for vastly less than the current price. The question before me, as it is with every stock I own, is "Should I buy more, hold or sell?"
I think that AOL will not look very much like an ISP in a few years. I've been thinking a lot, stimulated by you among others, about what form AOL will take. I've considered models from something similar to a telco, a mall, a TV network, a multifaceted media company, or even just a tollhouse on the internet collecting the pennies each time a transaction takes place. Some models predict a mediocre future, others predict an incredible one.
To tell the truth, I didn't predict the huge successes of MSFT, INTC and DELL. They were all risky at the time, but had already established themselves as "companies with a future" much as I see AOL. All of them had many different futures I could see, but all of them had a certain number that led to success.
I could well be wrong on AOL, and it wouldn't surprise me. AOL is based less on traditional products that you can see, touch and feel. I am therefore having difficulty assessing its future value. The more so for the other big internet stocks. For example, what is the intrinsic value of EBAY?
These are the questions I am trying to answer before I can get to trying to answer the question in the first paragraph. The significance of answering the question is due to the fact that the share price has done what it has done. Otherwise, I'd just let it ride.
Thanks for the discussion.
-musea |
