Ghassan - your answer seems sincere and well meaning - my argument is offered to you in kind.
First, let me say that I have no doubt your investment methods are successful. << I do have a lot of intuition and I tend to remember the details of every trading day for more than one year going back. I also never forget important events and how the stock responded. Above all, I feel that every stock has its own identity, or character and there is a market psychology associated with it. >> Let me add Ghassan that you are a technical analyst. We just go about it differently. Your methods are apparently more intuitive -
mine methodical. And I said "more" not absolutely.
I myself can not remember the details as you (Opening and Closing Price / High and Low for the day / and trading Volume) for Novell every trading day. Not to mention the details of every other company I own / follow / or newly discover. BUT, I do have that information recorded going back 8 years and can apply my technical criteria to them - instantly. (Added to that is Tick information when a stock gets critical).
Your comment <<. Well, I consider TA as the one possible explanation of something that happened AFTER it has happened.>> is purely subjective. Don't you believe that people closest to the source (earnings / merger / approval / discovery, etc.) jump on a stock first? Isn't that reflected in a chart before we see the news? So I say to you, I consider earnings and PR an explanation of what you saw in a chart earlier.
You say << I have yet to see someone predicting what is going to happen to a stock three times in a row (or even two times) based on technicals.>> Frankly Ghassan, I think you've done it but attributed your success to something else. I know I've done it and I attribute my success to TA and an understanding of market forces.
You mention Elaine Gazerelli. She became popular with her call in Oct. 87'. That brought back memories germane to this dialogue. That Wednesday before the Monday I called Oppenheimer and put in a telephone exchange request - like I did for many years before. They refused. They would NOT execute my request until the close on Monday - which they did. That cost me 600 dow points - 2000 in today's currency. Shortly later, they limited telephone exchange (for market timers) on many of their funds to $5 million - a ridiculously small amount. If anyone at Oppenheimer takes issue with my recollection - step up and we can discuss it. TA works and funds are afraid of it.
In the case of Novl, I mentioned to Dwight in December that his observations of pennant formations might make more sense if examined differently. I thought Novell was making a bottom and that formation was a classic indicator of it. Usually such formations show consolidation (trend resumes), but since Novell was so low I thought it a bottom . Later on this thread, I talked about Novell basing as block trades on the buy side got larger and spreads narrowed - confirming a bottom (market makers accumulation). I said the stock would rise based on short term (tick chart through 30 min.) indicators and called resistance at 10 5/8 - 11 5/8 - most felt the test was 12 1/2 - and then I said 15 in a hurry. I might add 15 is not a static target. It is a moving target in a dynamic market. 15 could be resistance or could become support.
I reiterated to Dwight that, "the test is NOW". I said extrapolate that range out a few weeks and see the result. So where do I go from here? ..... I have acquired the target, am ranging and waiting for lock, I will pull the trigger at or near a top.
Bye - Wish you the best.
PS - forget the fame, I'd trade all those posts for a slice of good N.Y., L.I., or N.J. pizza. |
