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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: RealMuLan who wrote (18282)1/28/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (1) of 23519
 
Zhang,

I'm sure we can all point out numerous small cap companies that have been slaughtered after missing earnings by a penny or two.

First Call estimates will probably get lowered immediately to estimates in line with Wilson's cc remarks. Don't forget that Vivus is covered by only 3 analysts who have never done a very good job at estimating earnings.

Vivus was priced at $3.00 with the expectation that they would lose 4 cents last quarter.

I believe it will be difficult for Leland to predict what earnings will look like this and next quarter. If a domestic partner signs on next week they can be very profitable. If MUSE gets individual country approvals the various larger European countries, Astra's MUSE demand can pick up suddenly and international shipments can increase substantially.

I believe that Wilson put the most guarded spin possible on Q1 and Q2 because he has finally learned that it is better to paint a conservative picture that can be out done than it is to paint a rosy picture that can easily disappoint.

My own opinion is that we will again see a small profit in Q1 and Q2 will be very profitable because Vivus will have a domestic partner by then including a large up front milestone payment and the international scene is not at all has pessimistic a picture as Wilson painted.
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