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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 48.72+3.0%3:59 PM EST

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To: kas1 who wrote (9909)2/2/1997 7:36:00 PM
From: William H Huebl   of 186894
 
Konrad,

I guess I didn't make myself clear... I actually did 2 plots...

- a normal (non-semi-log) MetaStock 6.0 chart using Raff channel. When plotting for a time period a year or greater (all the way out to 1986) todays stock price was always AT the top channel of the Raff plot. The software is MetaStock and it is proprietary. But when I try to use the semi-log feature, I can only go out about 2 years before the upper channel angle begins to increase at a great rate. Up until that time, the channel limit is around 200 and narrows to 170 at 3 months length. I don't think there is anything wrong with the software... it is just how I am trying to use it.

- to try to obtain a sense of what the relationship with 1987 was, I then used the semi-log plot WITHOUT the Raff channel. Instead, I used a trend line connecting the low points in 1986 and 1994, Then I drew a trend line from the 1987 peak to now... and it intersected at the current price. How accurate was that rendition? Here are the weak points...

+ it was an "eyeball" effort... I tried to make the upper trend line parallel to the lower one. I could have easily missed by 10 points either way at the top meaning we are over the line by 10 or we still have 10 to go;

+ the selection of the low points, again, was an "eyeball" fit... one in which you might well have selected points which would increase or decrease the slope of the lines;.

+ and finally, I do not have the foggiest whether it is at all important whether the fact that INTC happens to intersect with the line I drew or not.

Hope that helps... thanks for asking.

Bill
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