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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: VLAD who wrote (18287)1/28/1999 8:05:00 PM
From: VLAD  Read Replies (1) of 23519
 
The conference call is now available for replay.

I listened to it again.

Specifically, Wilson said that currently MUSE scripts in England and Sweden have now returned to preViagra levels and currently the respective ED market shares are 34% in England and 37% in Sweden.

I am very impressed with these percentages (is anyone else?).

What it tells me is that with a good marketing arm, MUSE (and eventually Alibra) will be able to control OVER 10% of the ED market on a GLOBAL basis.

I am disappointed with the uncertainties mentioned in Europe (concerning approvals in Europe) as Wilson states that maintaining profitability will be a "challenge" even with milestones gained from Astra's European approvals. Note that a "challenge" does not necessarily mean that Vivus can not show a profit in Q1 and Q2 1999.

I also feel that our new CFO signed on permanently because he believes that Vivus has a lot of future potential. If he felt Vivus was a lost cause he certainly wouldn't be signing any long term contract. This also signifies to me that Vivus is indeed set upon a domestic partner and not a sale of the company. It wouldn't make sense to sign up a key employee to a long term contract if you are planning on selling.

Also note that Wilson claims that near term expenses will be "geared towards revenues". In that case I expect that Vivus will continue to finance the phase III Alibra trials as planned and the gene therapy research as planned and "other" R&D spending will be determined on revenues. If revenues are hurting then more R&D money will not be spent. If revenues improve then some of the other things Vivus has on the back burner can move forward.

Currently I think that the key to Vivus stock's recovery is the signing of a domestic partner. I believe it will happen sooner than anyone here expects. I believe that Vivus has proved to some of the interested players that they will not sign a deal out of desperation and that they can continue to survive without hastily signing an unfavorable deal.

As I mentioned before, I am expecting that Vivus will be signing Astra-Zenneca as its domestic partner and it will include Japan and it will include a very healthy up front milestone payment.
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