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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications
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To: ccryder who wrote (5194)1/28/1999 10:49:00 PM
From: JMD  Read Replies (1) of 10852
 
ccryder, "with the world economy depressed I am not expecting a very fast ramp of users"--this is an interesting topic. Maurice argued following the "collapse" of Korea that they would turn off their heat, eat two bowls of rice/day instead of three, cancel the vacations to New Zealand, but that they would NOT stop using cell phones. Indeed, our friend argued that they would INCREASE them as they stayed home and got down to business.
Well I launched a few zingers M's way as being the eternal optimist but you know what? He was spot on--Koreans have gone into hyper mode on cell phones. Ditto the Japanese notwithstanding the incredibly sorry state of their economy. I'm prepared to believe that telecom is not only counter-cyclical but it's almost counter-counter cyclical: which I think means the bigger pile of doo-doo you face the more you need to increase telecom capacity to climb out from under the pile. What we need here is Will Rogers: never underestimate the desire of human beings to chat their asses off particularly when those asses are being kicked hard. Or something like that--Will would doubtless have phrased it more elegantly. I think G* will simply kick I*'s ass, but am not willing to bet against I*: folks just absolutely love to howdy and overcapacity does not present an issue as far as I can see. It scares me that I'm advocating a Field of Dreams theory here (build the bandwidth and they will come) but honest to Pete I think it's true (or at least fantasizing very hard that it will be). Regards, Mike Doyle
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