Tex, IMO approval of these two small-market drugs will eventually come, and provide handy cash for pursuing Targretin trials and NDAs
-- cash that will help keep Ligand from having to give away the store to pay the mortgage.
Unless the Street is deaf, dumb, and blind, it knows these approvals will eventually come, so i do NOT expect much upward thrust when they come. I DO expect, however, that they will help firm up support at 11 or 12, and cut some of the volatility (as has happened since ISIS' small-market approval) -- and mitigate the impact of the negative surprise of 4th Q and 1998 eps.
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In the meantime, I am totally bored with hearing no-data speculation about this
watch-pot duo, and am leaving them on simmer with zero attention from me.
The turning-point news I await and which -- I predict -- will move the stock:
- filing of an expedited (orphan drug) NDA for Targretin capsules for CTCL, and
- positive news from the Ph II Advanced Breast Cancer Trial.
The timing of these two is intertwined and critical -- they need to (and can) come together in 1999.
IMO, all this analyst-price-imminent blather is noise, that trivializes the company.
Just my opinion
Cheryl |
