Wind River going up, up, up! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Starlight who wrote (4157)	1/29/1999 2:15:00 PM
From: Richard Forsythe	Read Replies (1) of 10309

I imagine this snippet from an MSN column sums up the sentiment of the "average" investor: Know the history. Some companies never have a clue about future earnings. For example, who would be surprised if Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell short of analyst estimates for a quarter? The company missed in the September 1997 quarter (short by 120%), in the March 1998 quarter (just 50% shy) and in the June 1998 period (125% light). But when a company like Wind River Systems (WIND) admits that it can't see the road ahead, it means something. Wind River's management usually knows exactly where the next dollar in revenue is coming from. So when management has to say, "We cannot predict with any certainty whether our revenue will meet or exceed our expectations," as chief financial officer Richard Kraber did on Jan. 24, you know that the fog is really heavy on the road. (For more on what Wall Street calls visibility, see my Aug. 11 column "Driving safely in an earnings fog".) Even though this stock is down $17 a share from its 52-week high of $51.63, this isn't a dip I'd buy yet. Quite frankly, putting WIND in the same bucket as AMD is laughable...

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