[...re the judge, yeah, he must sense that appeals court would overturn a nasty penalty...]
I think Jackson will issue an anti-MSFT ruling with wording labeling them a monopoly. The penalty will get a lot of press, but will turn out to be no big deal, as the proposals so far would be absurd precedents and will not survive appeals with their teeth. However, the monopoly wording will invite every company that's ever lost market share to a MSFT product to sue.
The suit and it's spawns will be around for years, a constant annoyance with the occasional loss. Long term, though, I believe the only way MSFT loses is if they let it change their culture. They've studied in detail what it did to IBM, and I don't think that will happen. It will be a political issue to manage, a tax to be paid.
I don't expect much long term effect investment-wise, as the proposed remedies do not curb revenues. As long as those continue to rise, the occasional large fine or award will not have significant effect, though it will occasionally dampen the stock price for a few months. Wall Street is very forgiving of one-time charges.
I believe the DOJ loss is partially, not fully, discounted in the current price, and would expect a 10% drop on a loss. A freak win would start another big climb. |
