Loki: I think the price has stalled because of fundamental, not cosmetic or "technincal" reasons. There is probably a consensus that $47-50 represent full value, for now.
It might be propelled to $50-ish again if there is a clear and concerted recommendation from analysts.
Analysts don't like to be surprised, even on the upside. Like Kumar, they are trying to establish that they were right, after all - the earnings were about 37 or 38, as expected: the additional 5 or 6 cents earnings arose from non-operational items outside of their frame of reference. At the very least they want to be sure that the company is not using smoke and mirrors for the past quarter or for this coming year.
It suits them to wait a bit. They know the stock is fully valued at $50-ish. They would prefer to recommend it when it was $40-45, rather than $47-48. That gives them a margin of error.
There will be a another big oompah from Alta Vista. I would suspect that it will be an announcement, in principle, not in concrete detail, that sharehdolers of record on a certain date will be allowed to buy a quota at the IPO price. As Michael has said, we may get an announcement of a major content provider for AV, before then.
In the meantime, if the general market weakens I could see CPQ dip to $45 and even $42. If it does, soon, watch the analysts leap into the fray with their upgrades. I would be a buyer at $45 but would wait to see if it goes lower. |
