From a longer term TA perspective, which is what makes my analysis different from what most customarily think TA is, the best thing that can happen to AXC, the stock, is to rest in a consolidation area here between say 4.00 and 6.00 for about six weeks. Ideally, volume should cool down to about 400,000/day.
The purpose of the pause is frankly to turn off late buyers and other short term gazells - no offense intended. When it becomes "apparent" that AXC is stuck, and will not make it on the follow through, like a couple of years ago, then it will. In fact, the best of all would be, late in this period, on low volume, to have a false shake out into the 3's. This will even clean out the resting stop orders.
Finally, when as many as possible have been discouraged and have left, and it could take awhile, the stage will be set for the next move up.
A lot of hope is being pinned on the quarterly as a source of concrete explanation. However, it does not have to be. We have already seen how Ed Bramson and Karen will say nothing even after the fact. In fact, the quarterly could be the source of a shake out which would be, not because of the financials reported, but because of dashed expectations - for the moment.
Of course, if happenstance should dictate that a series of positive announcements follow one upon the other, then prices will most likely resume a spike upward only to be followed by a highly volatile consolidation but at a higher level.
Ed Perry |
