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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3096)1/30/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
AMAT addendum: AMAT bottomed in 1996 at a $11 1/4 close on July 24, 1996 when the Garz went bearish and we had a nice correction. So from that point on until January 29, 1997 it gained approximately 100% from the bottom to a close of $22.9375.

In this cycle, it closed at a bottom of $22 3/8 on October 8, 1998 and it closed yesterday at $63 3/16 for a 183% gain in a shorter number of days. Of course, the correction in 1998 was more dramatic than the correction of 1996. But 83% more gain in fewer days?

That's the problem with these stocks. We can't determine how much of the gain is real industry improvement and how much is market fluff from big mo and friends. And that is why I consider them far more risky now than in 1997.

Look at the 10 day put/call then on that graph. In 1997 at this time, it was meandering around .70 to .80. Today it is off the chart at .49.

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