cb, it is not dumb to double down in black jack when you have a 11 showing and the dealer has 6 showing. you might lose, but it is, in fact, the smart thing to do.
you can't ever look to the past to prove smart or dumb. was it smart of someone to bet $1 and have 50k to 1 odds of winning $100 - even if they WIN? it is still dumb bet.
while i can't argue the market has been bullish (market, not business), i can argue about about whether it is ever smart to bet on a grossly overvalued market.
btw, cb, i'm 95% long. surprise you? does that make me smart? ;-) granted some have been dogs to date. not all, though. my lgndw is up nearly 200% since october.
also, investing is a long run endeavor. remember ltcm? one of its managers was deemed a "master of the universe." why? he was right. well, at least until he was wrong ;-)
that is... until he lost billions and became a "losah" who is now wrong. all those rights no longer matter...
this is a vry dynamic game. a point to consider... |
