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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL)

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To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (4097)	1/30/1999 5:00:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) of 41369

JHG, OT Let me tell you what the handwriting said in the case of OXHP. It said that earnings were going sharply higher but operating cash flow was negative. People on the OXHP thread pooh-poohed the comment. I exited immediately. Those that remained saw their share price decrease by 80% in short order. In the case of SEG there were reports on SI (not in the newspapers) of plant closings in Malaysia. There were other snippets of news that began to add up to a hard-drive glut. Those that ignored these straws in the wind ended up taking a 60% bath. Sometimes I miss the obvious. Last spring PSFT reported a decrease in license revenues and a slowing in the growth of deferred revenues. I ignored these issues and was punished by suffering almost a 50% drop in the price of my shares when the inevitable became all too obvious. The point is that you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see these things coming. But you do need to be level-headed and do need to maintain an unbiased attitude. And you must be willing to reassess your conclusions. TTFN, CTC

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