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Non-Tech : E*Trade (NYSE:ET)

ET 16.28

+0.2%

12:57 PM EST

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To: ecommerceman who wrote (4575)	1/30/1999 5:59:00 PM
From: Gil Gilbertson	Read Replies (1) of 13953

I didnt intend to express my view as a certainty. This business requires that we view reality along with our dreams. The downside in 74 lasted 18 months, everytime we thought we had hit bottom, it would break thru and fall again. This was after a very positive period from 66 to 73. To say these times are different I would agree they are different but to the negative. We already live in a world of overprice housing which wasnt true in 1974. Today the wives are all working and contributing to that big house payment, in 1974 they were little league moms. In 1974 they didnt offer high 120% equity loans, they didnt offer credit cards to 50000 and cars didnt cost 30 grand. If this thing blows after 9 years, the stage is set for a bruttle settling. There is an old saying that all debt is paid either by the borrower or the lender. A major drop would force margin calls you coudnt believe. Then liquidations. Note that Ameritrade made a posted ruling effective Mar 1 they will demand more cash on stocks under 10 and cash for stocks under 5. Many traders are using house equity loans, credit cards and max margin. Yes , I believe the conditions exist for a replay, in fact I have scared myself into reality just recalling this and will pay down debt on Monday to the sleeping level ....gil

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