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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 161.03

+3.5%

Dec 4 3:59 PM EST

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To: TEMFASSBAL who wrote (5381)	1/30/1999 6:46:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) of 9256

TEMFASSBAL; <<"This business is EXTREMELY unattractive to anyone else and, increasingly, to those already in it" - Z>> <<"I've said this a thousand times if I said it once..the barriers to entry in the suspension business is the single best reason to own this company.">> I think this is a valid observation in reference to HTCH. HTCH has a strong market barrier position and clearly has a lead in the independent supply of wireless suspensions, which we could argue are going to grow in use inevitably. I also agree with your point that the notion of Fujitsu becoming an independent supplier is flawed due to competitive supply issues. Actually I cannot think of a single disk drive maker who has made a success of an OEM components business. In my opinion IBM is doing poorly as a head supplier just like they have always done poorly each time they tried to enter that business. The question I still have and hope to resolve today is that of valuation. HTCH was not one of the recovery stocks I invested in, in spite of Z's good advice early enough. I think there are several of us here who did not heed his analysis. So now, faced with an extraordinary run up in the stock, is Z right again, and is HTCH trading at forward multiples that make it an attractive investment still? Yogi bought last week, while I was buying Seagate again and adding QNTM. I am still riding a substantial short position on WDC but should probably cover soon. The question now is whether it is time for another shuffle and should HTCH be a part of that. <<How'd that EBAY trade work out...or is it still working?>> Down 15 points (5.13%) Friday. (Awesome Z, simply awesome. I am pointing my prayer rug in your direction.) Best, Stitch

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