Gameboy's back ! - where you been man ?
We needed those expert API/IEA analysis ... but, you ''aint'' sounding real positive here ? - please expand on your OPEC/Big Oil opinion... Are you of the school that the Big Oils had a hand in this ? If so, how and why ? Or, are the Big Oils merely opportunistic here, seizing the opportunity to get a piece of the Middle East Oil-Pie ?
Also, the only theory that scares the hell out of me, or deters me in any way here; is ''if'' the Saudi's are hellbent on bringing the other producers to their knees by flooding the market with oil in an effort to grab market share ?
I personally, don't buy this - given the info I've read; as the Saudi's can not survive domestically, either financially or more importantly; socially & politically. Their true ''Think-Tank'' calculated ''cost'' is not that $1 BOE out of the ground lifting cost, but rather that ''real-world'' $17 BOE revenue that they need budget-wise to maintain control of their populace - the world largest luxury-welfare state ! $17 BOE is their domestic spending breakeven point; they risk political unrest - in a very tenous ME Geo-political/religious fundamental enviroment. I do not think they would dream of playing this market share/flood the market ''card'' under current circumstances. No one ever accused the Saudi's as being ignorant, they would NEVER play the ''marketshare'' card from a position of weakness - and they are in a position of weakness politically, socially and economically imho.
Tell me if I'm missing something here ? I think the Saudi's are hurting bigtime here; ie: the $5 Billion loan from a neighbor. ie: asking the ''Majors'' to come in with technology to lower their costs and expand production & technology efficiencies further. Just good busines imho. That have to manage their Oil assets just like they were Exxon, or Mobil imho - and that is "ALL'' we are seeing them do imho ! No great conspiracy theories imho - they have been brought to their knees and are ''managing'' their business; restructuring no differently than any other ''Major'' Oil company... Also, the great longterm factor is that the OPEC countries have all greatly overstated their reserves - as current production is based on a percentage of reserves... overstating equaled bigger production quotas... They need the Big Oils technology for protecting their future and as a hedge in case Crude fundamentals have permanently changed...
Once again; one hell of a book/movie in this story.... ohhh to be a ''fly'' on the wall in those meetings between the Saudi's & the Oil Majors... Kind of think Bill Richardson & the US want to know exactly what is going on ... or, actually controlling ''what'' is going on... |
