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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: orkrious who wrote (20798)1/30/1999 10:32:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (4) of 25960
 
Jay, you are talking easily of a $100/share company, that translates to a market capitalization of $3 Billion (I assume conversion of the debenture by then and at least 30 MM shares). To justify such a price you do need to have visibility of sales around this number in a time horizon of some 5 years. I would say that such visibility is lacking right now. As much as I like CYMI, they have done nothing so far that indicate their desire to expand their market presence beyond "light bulbs", and frankly, these light bulbs which are selling now for about $.5 MM a piece could go even to $1 MM a piece without reaching even the billion mark in sales. Then, an investor must ask itself what happen after the next five years? Sure exuberance could even bring this stock to $60 or so, but that would be a very high price to pay for a "bulb company", which under the best case could get it sales about tripled (or somewhere around $600 MM) from where they are, IMHO.

Zeev
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