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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Tony Viola who wrote (47947)1/31/1999 1:18:00 AM
From: RDM  Read Replies (2) of 1579479
 
I have owned Intel stock and AMD stock off and on for more than 25 years. I have owned Intel stock continuously since 1988. I have varied the size some during the past ten years both up and down. It is now at a relatively large size by historical standards.

I have owned AMD stock continuously for the past three years. Here as well I have varied the amount that I hold. The size of fluctuation of AMD holdings has varied more than the Intel. In that sense one could say that I have done more trading. I believe that appropriate for doing with an underdog, regardless of the longer term potential.

In the past year or so the size of my AMD position has grown larger than my Intel position. After the recent run up from 70 to 140 I am inclined to reduce my Intel holdings a little.

While I do not think that Intel is fundamentally in great peril from AMD as long as calm heads are in control at Intel. AMD is a chimpanze and Intel is a gorilla. I think Intel management sees this. Intel produces 100 million CPUs per year and AMD may produce 22 million this year.

AMD is not forecasting great increases in chip count for 1998 from AMD but rather higher prices, in part, comenserate with the higher performance and costlier chips that they intend to produce.

There is no reason that two companies cannot prosper in the CPU business. Some economists and busines analyts think that three long term producers may be a magic number to serve an industry. It is a bit melodramatic to think that it is all or none and there will be only one final victor. Only in the movies! IBM coudn't do it. General Motors couldn't do it. Intel won't do it.

This is a long windest explanation for why I think that AMD shareholder value may rise by a large percentage than Intel. As an Intel investion, I regret that I believe that doubling is more difficult for Intel than AMD at the current levels.

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