Re: PRFM - Before I say anything, I say I respect his picks.. he picks good targets to short, I just don't think he has the best timing.
He initially shorted SKYM in the $20s, before it ran to $40
Same situation with IMON: intial short in the $6,7 range before it hit $15.
Yes he reshorted both of them at higher levels and made good money...
Then he shorted DBCC and has it listed as a big win...
He has a lot of capital and unlike a lot of people can short, lose some money, cover, and then reshort at higher levels... you will eventually win doing that strategy. He can wait out the runs upward by internets, where-as people who have smaller portfolios cannot. They get called on margin by their brokers and lose their investments..end of story.
Any internet stock moving on a single news related event (IPO, web site opening) is going to be a great short once the buying dries out and the news is absorbed. Happened to SKYM, AAGP, IMON, DBCC, MALL, will happen to NAVR in the future... its not hard to predict.
People with small pockets have to pick their points very carefully if they go short, because margin calls can wipe them out.. people with deep pockets can continously cover, re-short like he does.
Hell, Im not a genius but I bought DBCC at $10,$11 and $8, and the Jan 10 options when they were $1, $2, and $3 (which at one point were trading at $27 just 3 weeks later)-- sold the common in low 30s, and did even better with the options...
Then bought PUTs on DBCC the day before the IPO when it was $35. Those were cashed out 3 days later when DBCC hit $21, if I had patience I could of gotten even better returns.
I will be honest, most of my current portfolio is because of 2 huge plays.... DBCC, and YHOO options (mutiple times)... but these actions don't make me a genius.. I just played the trend... an obvious trend... DBCC was going up because of a news event, and at some point people cash out and it will go down.
Im not saying he is wrong on PRFM in the end..in fact I just agreed with it.
I am just saying his timing is dangerous for anyone with less capital than he has. He was a market maker for 6 years, and those guys rake in the dough.
If you had followed his advice and shorted SKYM on his initial call .. you would of been down 100% at some point (when SKYM hit $45) and for some they cannot afford that. Not everyone on SI is a millionare.
If I were to short PRFM, wouldnt I at least wait until Monday afternoon after the press releases?? Or perhaps on a Tuesday gap up?
PRFM was already talked about 6:30 Fri night on CNBC, what if they mention a 2M float internet stock during trading hours? IS that worth shorting at $13? I dont think so...
Eventually he will be right, any internet low float that moves on news eventually falls hard... but I dont believe in his timing..
Hell I could be wrong and will freely admit it if PRFM drops like a rock Monday.. I have my money where my mouth is. All I need to win this one and get out Mon/Tue is for Joe Kernan to say 3 words about PRFM.
Mark |
