The Peabody Report: January 31,1999
The PRN Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged.
Invest only after conducting your own research.
Have a PFun Superbowl Day!
BigKNY3
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Friday's PFE Stats (1/29/99):
Some profit-taking at the all-time PFE high..but PFE moved up with the market rally and positive Celebrex/Tikosyn/split vibes.
PFE Versus the Dow- Intraday
quicken.com
DOW JONES:
Close: 9,359, +76 (+0.84%)
PFE - PFIZER INC
Last Price: 128 5/8, +1.06 (+0.83%) All-time PFE High Close
High: 128 7/8 Pending Peabody Peak
Low: 126 1/4 at 10:15
Open: 128
Previous Close: 127 9/16 on 1/28
Volume: 4,616,100 High Volume
30-Day Avg. Volume: 3,387,000
Shares Outstanding: 1,297,794,000
52-Week High: 128.93
52-Week Low: 79.62
Beta: 1.02
Yield: 0.60%
P/E Ratio: 50.4
EPS: 2.55
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The Peabody Model
Short-Term PFE Trend: PFE will Reverse and Move Lower
-A new pending Peabody Peak of 128.88 was set last Friday on heavy volume...... indicative of a possible Peak....PFE has broken the target Peak of 127.49 by 1.1%
Target Peabody Valley: One of the findings of the Peabody Model is that profit-taking almost always occurs near a Peabody Peak. Accordingly, the Model predicts that PFE will reverse and head lower to a Peabody Valley of 113.5 (-11.7%) by 2/11/99. A pending Peabody Valley will be established if PFE breaks a strike price of 119.85 (-6.8%) (posted: 1/28/99 PFE@ 127.56)
Target Peabody Peak: If the model is wrong and PFE heads higher, the pending Peabody Peak could be extended to 135.00 (+5.0%).
Predicted PFE Level: At the current Dow level of 9,359, according to the Model the predicted PFE price is 121.90...... Accordingly, PFE is 5.5% overpriced as compared to historical Dow and PFE trends.
Da Short-term PForecast (1/31/99) PFE: 128.56, Dow: 9,359 Da Model is a working its magic again in 1999! Only 18 days ago, the Peabody Portfolio made a purchase of 100 shares@ 110.25, a return of 16.6% already. That's the great news.....The good news is that profit-taking will occur at the Peak. Why is it good news? First, it may bring about more buying opportunities. Second, the ebb and flow of PFE prices help to establish a base for future growth. Think about it...Don't you feel that the range of 120 -130 is a more reasonable for PFE than back in late December?
Da Gut Feel: PFE is riding high with Celebrex launched and sailing, the early Viagra approval in Japan, a calming of the Viagra media, the FDA Advisory Panel of Tikosyn, and the psychological impact of a 3-1 split. Unless there is another market correction, these factors will help place a floor on any PFE decline for the first half of 1999.
Although February is historically PFE's weakest month and profit-taking is a given, continuing reports of Celebrex rapid specification could bring PFE over 135 during the month. Expect a February trading range of 119 to 135+.
Suggested PFE Buying Range: $109 to $119 (1/31/99)
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Peabody Report Short-term PForecasts Evaluation
Peabody Short-Term PForecast (1/10/99): PFE: 122.25, DJ: 9,643: This could be an important week for PFE depending on the issuing of the 4th quarter earning report....Since it is a year end close, the report could issued anytime from Wednesday to Monday. Be very alert!!!! Any PFE strong move down will be a buying opportunity.
Gut feel: Celebrex expenses may temper 4th Qt EPS and earnings from global Viagra sales. However, in the tradition of Joe Namath, a PFE split announcement is guaranteed later this month with a 75% probability of a historic 3 -1. Accordingly, positive vibes, momentum and a continuing positive market will bring PFE over the 130 level during January.
www3.techstocks.com
Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: Within 3 days of this pforecast, PFE dropped to 109.56. Were you alert for this major buying opportunity? The 3-1 split, strong global V sales and a January high of 128.88 make this pforecast a thumbs up classic.
Peabody PForecast Record (92 predictions): 58-34 (63%)
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The Peabody Observation: 1/31/99
Many investors who invest in a poorly performing company go into a total state of denial of the future of their investment. Instead of selling and moving on to better companies, they double down their on their "udervalued" investments, blame the "shorts" and "market manipulators" for the stock's decline, and encourage others to join their misery. Be very concerned about an investment board poster who has been consistently wrong, writes about the "short squeeze" and may be in need of visiting Gamblers Anonymous.....Here's a helpful quote from Gene Walden's book "100 Ways to Beat the Market" that applies to all stocks:
"The stock doesn't know you own it. It doesn't care about you, it has no emotional attachment to you, and it doesn't have any opinion one way or another about whether you hold or sell it. So, by all means, sell it. Kiss it goodbye. Get it out of the portfolio and put money into a stock that has more potential for growth."
The Peabody Portfolio:
# PFE purchases since 8/14/96: 29
% of purchases in the black: 100%
# PFE shares purchased: 4,500
Average PFE purchase price: $68.29
Annualized return: 90.1%
Current return: 88.3%
# PFE purchases since 1/01/99: 2
% of purchases in the black: 100%
# PFE shares purchased: 200
Average PFE purchase price: $113.63
Annualized return: 245.4%
Current return: 13.1%
The Peabody Portfolio consists of 29 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996.
To date, the Portfolio has purchased 4,500 PFE shares at an average price of $68.29 (only 3.5% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys).
# PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 4,500
Average Price of Purchases:....... $68.29
Total Costs: ...............................$307,288
Total Market Value:.....................$578,531
Total Potential Profit:...................$271,244
Date............#..........Purchase
Purchased...Shares...Price
8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38
10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44
12/4/96:......200..........$41.69
12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50
12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44
12/31/96:....200..........$41.50
1/2/97:........200.........$40.94
1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38
2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69
3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88
3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81
3/31/97:........200..........$42.56
8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13
4/16/98:........200...........$97.00
4/27/98:........200...........$113.00
5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50
5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00
5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75
7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00
7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50
8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00
8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63
8/11/98..........100..........$100.00
9/01/98..........100..........$97.63
10/06/98.........100..........$94.00
10/09/98.........100..........$89.00
10/14/98.........100..........$89.50
01/10/99.........100........$117.00
01/12/99.........100........$110.25
Total:............4,500.........$68.29
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Peabody Peaks & Valleys: Updated 1/30/99
Listed below is an updated summary of the Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/04/90.
The columns include the following data:
- PFE prices
- % change since the previous Peabody Valley or Peak
- # of days from the last Peabody Valley or Peak
- # of high volume days associated with the Peabody Valley or Peak
- predicted next Peabody Valley or Peak using the Model
- difference between the predicted Peabody price and the actual price .
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................................................................................ Predicted
.........................................% Chg... # Days..High Vol..Peabody....% Diff
...............................PFE.....Last........Last....Days ....Next Pred..Peabody/
Peak/Valley.. Date...Price...Vall/Pk....Val/Pk. W/ Date...Vall/Pk....Actual
1....Peak.....1/4/90....9.06.................................. 2....... 6.92........1.5%
2....Valley...2/26/90...6.81.....-24.8%..... 53........12......11.31.......19.0%
3....Peak.... 7/31/90...9.50......39.4%.....155.......21........7.31....... -8.7%
4....Valley...8/23/90...8.00.....-15.8%..... 23..........1.......12.61 .....-41.3%
5....Peak.....2/30/91..21.50...168.8%... 494 .........9.......18.07...... 4.9%
6....Valley...2/19/92...17.22...-19.9%......51..........8.......22.76...... 19.2%
7....Peak.....2/27/92...19.10....10.9% .......8 .........2.......15.91...... -6.4%
8...Valley....4/28/92...17.00....-11.0%......61.........3.......22.52....... 8.2%
9....Peak.....8/20/92...20.81.....22.4%....114........4........17.45 .......+0.4%
10..Valley...10/5/92....17.38....-16.5%......46.......10.......22.93.......14.7%
11..Peak.....2/14/92 ...20.00.....15.1%......70........3.......16.72........27.4%
12..Valley....2/22/93 ...13.13 ...-34.4%..... 70 .....33.......18.25 ......14.5%
13..Peak.....3/11/93 ...15.94 ....21.4%......17 . .....3.......13.08 .... -8.2%
14..Valley....3/24/93 ...14.25 ...-10.6%......13........1........19.49......3.1%
15..Peak.....6/17/93 ...18.90.....32.6%...... 85.......6.......15.73 .....13.1%
16..Valley...8/16/93 ...13.92 ....-26.4%..... 60.....13.......19.13 .....17.2%
17..Peak.....9/03/93....16.31......17.2%......18.......1.......13.41......-7.1%
18..Valley...10/04/93...14.44 ....-11.5%......31.......1.......19.70 .....11.9%
19..Peak.... 12/30/93...17.60 .....21.9%......87.......0......14.57 .......9.7%
20..Valley....3/31/94....13.29 ....-24.5%......91.......2......18.43......-18.1%
21..Peak......3/29/95....22.50.....69.4%.....363......3......18.96.......-5.8%
22..Valley.....5/15/95....20.13..... -10.6%.....47......5......25.96........0.6%
23..Peak......8/1/95......25.81......28.3%..... 78..... 5......21.93 ......-5.7%
24..Valley....9/8/95.......23.25.....-9.9%....... 38....10.....29.40 .......-12.1%
25..Peak.....12/14/95....33.44.....43.8%.......97......5.....28.77.........-4.9%
26..Valley.....1/19/96.....30.25.....-9.5%.......36....14..... 37.10.........4.9%
27..Peak.......2/13/96.....35.38....16.9%.......25.....4...... 30.50 ........-0.8%
28..Valley.....3/14/96..... 30.75....-13.1%......30.....11.....37.65.........4.0%
29..Peak.......4/3/96 ......36.19....17.7%.......20..... 2......31.23 .......-0.7%
30..Valley......5/8/96......31.44....-13.1%......35......3......38.41........-0.7%
31..Peak.......6/17/96.....38.69....23.1%.......40......3......33.47........2.0%
32..Valley......7/16/96.....32.81....-15.2%.....29......2.......39.92........-7.7%
33..Peak.....10/21/96......43.25...31.8%.......97..... 5.......37.56....... -4.9%
34..Valley....10/28/96.....39.50....-8.7%........7.......5.......47.28 ....... 3.6%
35..Peak.....11/26/96 .....45.63...15.5%......29.......4.......39.69 .......-0.1%
36..Valley....12/6/96 .......39.75...-12.9%.....10.......5.......47.56........-4.6%
37..Peak.......2/18/97......49.88...25.5%......74...... 5.......43.50.........4.8%
38..Valley..... 4/03/97......41.50...-16.8%.....44.....15.......49.48........30.9%
39..Peak.......7/07/97.......64.75.. 56.0%......95 ....18.....55.13 .........-7.4%
40...Valley....8/18/97........51.06...-21.1%.....42 ...11.....66.88.........10.1%
41...Peak....10/24/97.......73.63 ...44.2%......67.....3 ....62.00...........4.8%
42...Valley...10/27/97.......65.00 ...-11.7% .....4.....2.....85.50.........-12.1%
43...Peak....10/30/97.......74.88.....15.2% .....2..... 3.....66.00.........+0.5%
44...Valley...11/13/97.......66.31....-11.3%....14.... 3.....83.00.........-3.6%
45...Peak....12/04/97.......80.00.....20.6%....21.....2......69.13.......+0.6%
46...Valley...12/19/97.......69.56....-13.0%....15.....1......87.13........+9.0%
47...Peak......1/05/98.......79.94.....14.9% ....17....1......69.38 ....... -2.4%
48...Valley... 1/12/98...... 71.06.....-11.1% .... 7....3 .....87.00........ -4.9%
49...Peak..... 2/27/98...... 91.44.......28.7% ...46 ...1 ....79.87 ....... -5.1%
50...Valley....3/06/98.......84.13.........-8.0% .... 7 ...3....103.71.......+0.0%
51....Peak.....4/06/98 ....103.75........23.3%...31...13.....91.86 ........-3.6%
52...Valley.... 4/16/98......95.31........ -8.1%....10 ....1...116.50 ........-4.3%
53...Peak......4/21/98.....121.75.........27.7%.....5 ....8...109.12..........4.5%
54...Valley....5/17/98 .....104.75........-14.0% ...26 ..2....124.00.......+8.6%
55....Peak ....5/20/98 .....114.19.........9.0%......3 ...4 ....101.10.......+0.8%
56 ...Valley.. 6/01/98......100.38........-12.1%....12...5 ....119.75.......+4.2%
57....Peak.... 6/18/98 ....114.94..........14.5%....17...1 ...102.00........-3.4%
58....Valley.. 7/06/98 .....105.63......... -8.1% ...18 ..4.....126.59.......+5.0%
59....Peak ...7/14/98......120.56..........14.1% .....8 ..4....107.00........+9.2%
60... Valley... 8/11/98......98.00.........-18.7%.....28...1.....117.19.......+7.6%
61....Peak...8/19/98.......108.94..........10.6% .....8 ..1.......97.06........+5.5%
62....Valley.. 9/01/98 ..... 92.00......... -15.5% ...13 ..6....109.79.......+7.6%
63....Peak ...9/03/98......102.06..........10.9% ......2....5.....90.32........-3.4%
64... Valley.. 9/04/98......93.50...........-8.4%........1... 5...110.79.......+6.7%
65....Peak.....9/15/98.....103.88........+11.1%.....11...0.... 92.25.......-2.9%
66....Valley....9/21/98......95.00.........-8.5%.........6...0....110.00.....+0.7%
67....Peak.....9/28/98.....109.19........+14.9%...... 7...2......96.93.....+12.7%
68....Valley...10/08/98......86.00........-21.3%.....10...5......101.40.....+4.6%
69....Peak.....10/12/98.... 96.94........+12.7%.......4...0.... 85.30......-3.6%
70....Valley...10/14/98......88.50.........-8.7%........2...2....103.36.......-19.8%
71....Peak....12/31/98 ... 128.94......+45.7%.......78...1.....114.00.......+4.1%
72....Valley...1/12/99......109.56........-15.0%.....12...4.....127.49........-1.1%
73....Peak*....1/29/99 ... 128.88.......+17.6%......17...3.....
........*Pending
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Average..Peak (1999) N=1..............+17.6%.....17.............3
Average..Peak (1998) N=13............+18.3%.....18 ............3
Average..Peak (1997) N= 5.............+32.3%.....52.............7
Average..Peak (90-99) N=37...........+28.2%.....64 ............4
Average..Valley (1999) N= 1 ......... -15.0%......12 .............4
Average..Valley (1998) N=12 ......... -12.1%.....12 .............3
Average.. Valley (1997) N= 5...........-14.2%.....10 .............2
Average..Valley (90-99) N=36 .........-14.4%.....30 .............6
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Suggested PFE Buying Strategies
The suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time.
:..................$109 to $119...........Updated: 1/31/99
Inpatient new or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at or near Peabody Valleys
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Suggested PFE Selling Strategies
Selling of PFE is recommended if a major PFE or market pfundamentals significantly change.
If you need to raise capital by selling PFE, one suggested selling strategy is to set a 50% market sell order at a level 8% higher than the last Peabody Valley. After a period of one month evaluate the results of this action and consider selling the remaining 50%...once again at a level 8% higher than the latest Peabody Valley reached during that month. You should also take into account possible pfuture actions that may effect PFE trends.
PFuture Actions That May Effect PFE Trends
Viagra and Celebrex Rx trends:...................... Every Monday
Initial reports of Viagra Japan sales................. February 1999
Reports of early Celebrex Rxs.........................February 1999
Viagra & Celebrex News......................... ......Everyday
Major analyst's Upgrades/Downgrades............Throughout 1999
PFE Annual Meeting........... .........................April 22, 1999
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Peabody V-Files
Updated: 1/31/99
Viagra sales for the last 9 months of 1998 totaled $788 million, probably the highest sales ever for a new pharmaceutical product during its first 9 months on the market.
Viagra 1998 sales were two and half times higher than the combined full-year 1998 sales of the other expected 19998 blockbusters...Evista (LLY) and Propecia (MRK). In fact, Trovan sales were higher than either Evista or Propecia.
1998 Big Pharma Potential Blockbusters
...........................................$Millions
............................1Q.............2 Q........... 3Q..........4Q.......Total YTD
........................... Sales....... Sales.........Sales.......Sales.......Sales
Viagra..............Not on market.$411.........$141...........$236......$788
Singulair................$13...........$ 38...........$ 55...........$88........$194
Trovan....................$42...........$ 22...........$ 41...........$55.......$160
Evista....................$34............$ 15...........$ 33..........$63........$145
Propecia.................$13...........$ 16............$24...........$30.........$83
Maxalt....................N/A...........N/A............$15...........$12.........$27
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PFE Stock Splits
Updated: 12/13/98
PFE has split 2-1 three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE usually announces a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998.
At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, the PFE CEO stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year.
Bottom line, a 3-1 PFE split announcement will most likely be announced in late January, 1999 as part of the celebration of PFE' s 150 year birthday. Probability of split: 97%.
1/31/99 Update: On 1/28/99, PFE Board announced a 3-1 split. I believe the last PFE 3-1 split occurred in 1971.
Useful PFE Links
-3 year PFE chart versus the Dow growth. control.bigcharts.com
-6 Month PFE Chart with Da Bollinger Bands Playing 207.95.154.130
PFE 1 Year Chart (With Min/Max and Moving Averages)
dailystocks.net
-5 Year PFE Price Chart
news.com
-Peabody PFE Price History (1987-1998) (Updated: 9/03/98)
www3.techstocks.com
The Peabody Model
-The Peabody Model Amendment #1: The Influence of the Dow (Updated: 10/17/98)
www3.techstocks.com
The Market Environment
-Briefing.com- Reviews current market environment
briefing.com
-World Markets
quote.yahoo.com
-Labpuppy Pharma Reports
labpuppy.com
Investment Advice
-26 Weeks to Successful Investing- IBD
ibd.infostreet.com
- 8 easy ways to lose your shirt in stocks
usatoday.com
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