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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum
WDC 161.03+3.5%Dec 4 3:59 PM EST
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To: Stitch who wrote (5382)1/31/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: Z Analyzer  Read Replies (2) of 9256
 
<<In my opinion IBM is
doing poorly as a head supplier just like they have always done poorly each time they
tried to enter that business. >>
Can you elaborate on this. I had the impression IBM was God in the DD and heads businesses given profitability even during last year's meltdown.

" So now, faced with an extraordinary
run up in the stock, is Z right again, and is HTCH trading at forward multiples that make it
an attractive investment still?"
Obviously, the question is much more difficult now than before. Its much easier to let profits run that commit new capital so I don't really know the answer. My biggest concerns with HTCH now are market meltdowns or tech sector meltdowns if we're just now experiencing a year 2000 preparation bulge followed by a lull. I am much more confident in HTCH outperforming other disk drive companies who just experienced the seasonally strongest quarter and where a resurgence of price competition will probably coincide with any slow down in demand. As I said before, as long as HTCH can continue to ramp TSA, they are virtually guaranteed strongly rising ASPs(except March), revenues, gross margins and earnings which will probably approach and could easily exceed $1.00 per quarter within a few quarters. That results in a pretty low multiple compared with what I foresee for the DD companies.
Congrats on your WDC call. I almost bit but missed it. Later, Z
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