TV-Web Convergence:
Now? Ever?
By James Ledbetter
"At NATPE, many seemed to believe that an answer to that
question would begin to emerge this year. Mark Bunzel,
managing director of PriceWaterhouse Coopers, predicted that
the best merged content will come from the large TV
networks, which will use the Web to supplement informational
shows, including sports and talk shows....broadcast advocates insist that fully
converged television will crush and co-opt the Internet. "When
this conversion happens," predicted Bud Paxson of Paxson
Communications, "[given] the traction a CNN has, the traction
a CNBC has, the Yahoos are not going to be there."
NEW ORLEANS – Trying to learn
the state of convergence at a
convention of TV executives is like
trying to learn about the afterlife
from a group of religious zealots:
You can't see it, no one can tell
you what it's going to look like or
when it's going to happen, but
everyone says we'd better get
ready for it.
Nearly a month before the National
Association of Television Program
Executives (NATPE) convention
began this week, Microsoft's
WebTV bought signs atop dozens
of taxicabs – for about $75 per
cab per month – throughout New
Orleans. It even went so far as to
buy space on the taxi receipts that
TV producers and programmers
would inevitably take home for
their expense accounts.
That 1999 is the first year Internet
and computer companies have had
a substantial presence at NATPE is
compelling. Almost every panel
featured some discussion of
Web-television convergence, but
it's unclear whether convergence
currently is much more than a
clever promotional hook for
Microsoft.
No one doubts that the technology
exists to combine television and
computers in powerful and
transforming ways. And some
such marriage is almost inevitable.
Beyond that, the details are
elusive.
For example: What's the business
model for the Internet-TV hybrid of
the future? Will it be
advertising-supported (like
broadcast television),
subscriber-supported (like cable),
or e-commerce-supported (like
some of the Web)? But many
executives speculated on this
nebulous future.
Halsey Minor, chairman and CEO of
CNET, was blunt. "You've been
covering this for a while, you know
the way we operate is: First you
build the businesses, then you build
the business model."
He was only half-joking. "You don't
know what the business model is
until you know what the consumer
wants," Minor elaborated. He
predicted that the successful
Internet-TV companies would be
those who could prove that they
attract lots of eyeballs, and then
"the more eyeballs, the more
advertising you get."
And it's possible that the power of e-commerce will transform television's business models as well. Tom Rogers, president of
NBC's cable and business development, noted that unlike
networks, "local stations are truly in the business of selling
things," like cars and other retail products, and that they
therefore "are going to have an easier time making the
transition to e-commerce." Minor maintained that different
revenue streams will emerge as broadband technology
becomes more widespread; he included video-on-demand and
the "tsunami" of music purchases that he predicted will come
through MP3.
But more traditional broadcast advocates insist that fully
converged television will crush and co-opt the Internet. "When
this conversion happens," predicted Bud Paxson of Paxson
Communications, "[given] the traction a CNN has, the traction
a CNBC has, the Yahoos are not going to be there. You're
going to have to have brands."
Another unanswered question concerns ownership of content.
For the last several years, network TV has faced a crisis, as
independent production studios have demanded more money
to continue providing hit shows. Some stations have gone so
far as to sell entire blocks of time – including ad space – to
production studios. As a result, networks have pushed harder
to own and control their own content (one factor behind the
expansion of network-owned newsmagazines into every
weeknight of prime time). By contrast, most Web companies
perceived as successful – some e-commerce sites, portals and
search engines – are aggregators of content that comes from
someone else.
And, speaking of content, what exactly will all those eyeballs
be watching? Will the converged "hit shows" of the future look
more like today's TV shows, more like today's Web sites or
more like some hybrid we have yet to see?
At NATPE, many seemed to believe that an answer to that
question would begin to emerge this year. Mark Bunzel,
managing director of PriceWaterhouse Coopers, predicted that
the best merged content will come from the large TV
networks, which will use the Web to supplement informational
shows, including sports and talk shows.
Some of that, of course, is already occurring. Patricia Vance,
head of ABC Internet Group, for example, pointed to
promotional information on Oprah.com, and predicted that
more than a million people would go to Oscar.com this year on
the night and day after the Academy Awards. Simultaneous
Webcasts are beginning to subtly affect the content of some
television programs; former New York City Mayor Ed Koch
boasted to The Standard that his viewers are encouraged to
vote on cases in The People's Court, with results posted during
the same episode. That kind of symbiotic interactivity is, most
executives agreed, a model for what convergence will look
like.
But one vital aspect of television that is strikingly clear at a
convention like NATPE is that the most profitable programs –
the E.R.s and the Seinfelds – are fictional narratives. To date,
that has not been the Web's strongest suit. Bunzel, for one,
believes that successful narrative is unlikely to develop there
any time soon, in part because narrative is not a great
platform for e-commerce.
"I'm not one of these people who thinks: You're watching a
show, and you tap on the female star's sweater, and it takes
you to some place where you can buy it. That's technology in
search of a solution," said Bunzel.
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