Hex - I thought the expansion of float and the consistent earnings growth over the last year would greatly lessen the volatility of this stock. So much for the theories of bugs.
Beetles, it seems, are somewhat challenged in the art of conceptual thinking, even though they are adept at recognizing a crock of shit when they see it.
And a full crock has just been dumped on the little stock known as Neo.
After this week's unbelievable hatchet job by Morgan Stanley, I just had to research that brilliant wall street seer, Mark Edelstone's record of calls on this stock. Aside from being consistently on the low side with his earnings estimates, (last Feb. he projected .24 verses the actual of .31. I expect he low balled this quarter too), he has flip flopped his ratings several times on this stock. Each time his rating changes were sprung the day after the stock was showing clear signs of a technical reversal and the last two times just weeks before an earnings announcement when investor uncertainty is highest.
Both his last ratings upgrade on March 31, 1998 and last week's rating downgrade resulted in a significant gap in the stock price when it opened the day of the ratings change, so there is little doubt that his carefully timed ratings changes can impact the stock price - at least temporarily.
Now lets look at how you would have fared if you had reacted to his advice by buying or selling on his signals. Last March 31, after his upgrade and price target of $30, the stock gapped up, opened at $18 1/2 and finished the day at $19. Let's say you bought at the open at $18 1/2. Now almost a year later, Mark speaks - you listen, and sell at his downgrade - at $14 for a $4 1/2 dollar loss. That's assuming you didn't drop out when the stock tanked to $10 1/2 a few months after his last upgrade which I'm sure many reasonable investors did.
Hell, you shoulda just bought Microsoft.
Why anyone listens to this guy is really beyond me, but this is how wall street works so you just have to adapt.
People should listen to Jim Wright, the dung meister of this thread. They will do much better. He signaled a buy near Neo's low at $13 or so last October, and a sell at $20 1/2 a few months later near its recent high based on fading momentum. Compare your returns from Jim's or Mark's calls.
Dung beetle Joe, was a little more cautious and opted out at $18 1/2 after buying near the October low but still beat Mark Edelstone hands down in the total return department.
The short interest increased again in January as I suspected to 4.7 million shares. Of course, Mark's treachery has given the shorts a beautiful opportunity to cover prior to the earnings release scheduled for February 18 and dashed my fantasies of a short squeeze. Anticipate a huge drop in the short interest when February's short interest report is finally published.
Coincidence - I think not, and the worm will turn anew.
For a graph on neo short interest hit this link: dnai.com
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