<<Perhaps you could clarify when the events you describe will begin.>>
Thanks to the comparison suggested by Tom Kirwin on Yohoo, I can clarify my concerns. See:
messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com
Ampex is still a small company with a headcount of about 500 people. Currently, AXC share price is moving up very rapidly on expectation of new business whose revenue stream (profits are not even thinkable at this moment) is uncertain. Continuation of this momentum can occur only if there is a continuous stream of appropriately paced exciting announcements one after the other coming from these same 500 people (mind you - many of them are in research and engineering).
Since AXC has a large float (40mm compared to 5mm for ITVU and a float certain to increase in the case of AXC), we need bigtime sponsorship from institutional investors. If AXC share price has a markup *SIMILAR* to that of ITVU (8.00 2/17/98 => one day spike to ~30.00 4/21/98), with no significant intervening resting - consolidation periods along the way, then AXC shares will crash and burn just like ITVU did (~30.00 4/21/98 => 7.00 9/1/98).
If there is a presence of such extreme volatility, then AXC will not be attractive to the institutional set and AXC will return to the doghouse. As I read the rush and excitement of the new posters, this almost seems to guarantee this as inevitable. If the wild hopes and greed of new shareholders doesn't do it, then the inevitable follow-on short sellers inducing fear, will.
On the positive side, the large AXC float and the professional Amex auction setting (not as in those unregulated sob MM's on NASDAQ) , may give a more orderly market appreciation to AXC shares. I certainly hope so.
Otherwise, we will ALL be forced into a short term trading mind set and have to settle for much less than optimal profits. I don't like to spoil the party, but the fact is that millionaire makers come from long term holdings of good stocks (good products, good services, good management, good research, good innovation and so on). On the other hand, just as in ITVU, if one thinks that he is going to buy at Monday's open and sell at "30.00" in two months and then buy back at "7.00" in five months ya da da da da da -- da, then he is deluding himself. While, it may be entertaining to try, and there is certainly a large service industry to support this pastime, it just can't be done.
Ed Perry
PS:
N. Wayne Agee: after ITVU spent 3 months in the doghouse in late 1998 share prices have returned to the 25.00 level. From my post of 1/20/98 "Finally, when as many as possible have been discouraged and have left, and it could take awhile, the stage will be set for the next move up."
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