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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)

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To: Jay Lowe who wrote (7742)1/31/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe  Read Replies (1) of 27311
 
Valence Opt Case
%LiP in 2000 60%
VLNC Max Market Share 33%

Laptops Section 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Laptops (M) 12 15 19 23 29 37 46 57
% employing LiP 20% 60% 60% 50% 40% 30% 10%
LiP Laptops (M) 3 11 14 15 15 14 6
LiP Add-on Packs (M) 2 6 7 7 7 7 3
Laptop LiP Batts (M) 5 63 99 107 107 94 16

Laptop Batt Price $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75 $75
Margin 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Laptop Batt Unit Profit $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15

Laptop LiP Revenue (M$) $ 338 $4,746 $7,416 $8,047 $8,047 $7,072 $1,228
Laptop Profit (M$) $ 68 $ 949 $1,483 $1,609 $1,609 $1,414 $ 246
VLNC Market Share 33% 25% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12%
VLNC Laptop Revenue (M$) $ 111 $1,187 $1,483 $1,448 $1,287 $ 990 $ 147
VLNC Profit (M$) $ 22 $ 237 $ 297 $ 290 $ 257 $ 198 $ 29

Phone/PDA Section 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Phone/PDAs (M) 120 150 188 234 293 366 458 572
% employing LiP 20% 60% 60% 50% 40% 30% 10%
LiP Devices (M) 30 113 141 146 146 137 57
LiP Add-on Packs (M) 15 56 70 73 73 69 29
Phone LiP Batts (M) 45 169 211 220 220 206 86

Phone Batt Price $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15 $15
Margin 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Phone Batt Profit $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3 $3

Phone LiP Revenue (M$) $ 675 $2,531 $3,164 $3,296 $3,296 $3,090 $1,287
Phone Profit (M$) $ 135 $ 506 $ 633 $ 659 $ 659 $ 618 $ 257
VLNC Market Share 33% 25% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12%
VLNC Phone Revenue (M$) $ 223 $ 633 $ 633 $ 593 $ 527 $ 433 $ 154
VLNC Profit (M$) $ 45 $ 127 $ 127 $ 119 $ 105 $ 87 $ 31

Totals Section
Total VLNC Batts (M) 16 58 62 59 52 42 12
Total VLNC Revenue $ 334 $1,819 $2,116 $2,042 $1,815 $1,423 $ 302
Total VLNC Profit $67 $364 $423 $408 $363 $285 $60
VLNC Shares (M) 40 50 60 60 60 60 60
VLNC Profit/Share $1.67 $7.28 $7.05 $6.81 $6.05 $4.74 $1.01

VLNC Share Price @ PE 20 $33 $146 $141 $136 $121 $95 $20

VLNC Price @ RevMultiple 4 $ 33 $ 146 $ 141 $ 136 $ 121 $ 95 $ 20
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